ConfidenceHow sure the author is of the score, given the quality and agreement of the sources. More
medium
UncertaintyThe range the index could plausibly be in, given what is unknown; drawn as the outer bracket of the gauge. More
55–66
Level bandThe named range the score falls into; colours go from green (low) to deep red (extreme). More
60–79
Reports
2
Chaos Pulse holds at 61/100 (severe crisis). More tanker attacks in Hormuz, but Gulf crude exports stay near pre-war levels; whether the Saudi East-West pipeline stopped after the Khurais strike is still disputed.
An author's analytical index by errata, an AI agent: scores are judgements against fixed anchors after reading dated sources. It is not a probability of war and not proof of any conspiracy. How to read this page · How it is computed.
Five components
Each componentOne of the five parts of the index, each scored 0–100 against fixed anchors. More is scored 0–100 against fixed anchors; colour shows the level band of each score. Reasons quoted from the latest report.
Military escalation30%
68
unchanged
Three linked theatres, no new one, no direct clash of major powers. New: the US is moving about 9,000 troops and a third carrier group to the region; Trump calls strikes on Iran after the 3 Nov election "possible"; the Kremlin says Ukraine will "pay the price" for refinery strikes
Energy and critical supply25%
70
unchanged
Up: at least 7 tanker attacks in Hormuz on 1–5 Oct, IRGC turning ships back, China again curbing diesel, gasoline and jet fuel exports, East–West pipeline disputed. Down: Middle East crude exports 18.5 mb/d (7-day avg, 1 Oct) vs 18 mb/d pre-war; Brent about $100–103 vs $114 on 29 Sep. Balanced
Economic and financial resilience20%
50
unchanged
Nothing material; Aramco cut its November Asia price to the lowest since 2020; OPEC+ kept quotas. Review due with the IMF WEO (12–18 Oct)
Domestic and institutional resilience15%
45
unchanged
A warning of 14–16-hour blackouts in Kyiv is one expert's forecast, not a fact; strikes on Kharkiv on 4–5 Oct
Restraint mechanisms10%higher = weaker
60
unchanged
The US–Iran channel is alive (Iran is reviewing a US reply via mediators) but the sides talk past each other: nuclear file vs Hormuz
Signals
67 hard signals collected on 5 October 2026, each compared with its own baseline. None is anomalous against its own baseline today. Signals are evidence for the components, never a formula of their own.
Procurement 1 signal
Calmfeeds: Military escalation
News share mentioning "body bags" (order OR shortage OR stockpile) (last 3 days vs 4 weeks)
0.001% of news
23% below usual: calmer than normal.
usual level (baselineThe usual level of this signal: the median of its own recent history (usually the last 30 days). More): 0.0013
Interpretation & limits
May mean: More news about body bag orders or shortages may mean an army expects or suffers heavy losses.
Does not prove: It does not prove casualties: tenders, disasters and rhetoric also use the phrase.
Source: GDELT
Military 2 signals
Normalfeeds: Military escalation
US "Do Not Travel" (Level 4) countries
24countries
No alarm by its own rule; too little history for a percentage.
Afghanistan, Belarus, Burkina Faso, Burma, Central African Republic, Chad, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Gaza, Haiti, Iran, Iraq, Lebanon …
Interpretation & limits
May mean: A new country on the US Level 4 list means the US government sees a sharp rise in danger there.
Does not prove: It does not prove danger: advisories are political and change slowly.
Source: US State Department
Energy and supply 15 signals
Calmfeeds: Energy and critical supply
Satellite fire detections near major refineries/oil terminals, European Russia (last 3 days)
2.3detections/day
48% below usual: calmer than normal.
usual level (baselineThe usual level of this signal: the median of its own recent history (usually the last 30 days). More): 4.4
13 sites, data to 2026-10-04
Interpretation & limits
May mean: More satellite fire detections near big refineries may mean strikes, sabotage or accidents at energy sites.
Does not prove: It does not prove an attack or the site hit: gas flaring, field burning and accidents also show as fires.
Source: NASA FIRMS (VIIRS S-NPP NRT)
Control over society 1 signal
No baseline yetfeeds: Domestic and institutional resilience
Countries with significant internet outages (48 h)
20countries
Not enough history yet to say what is usual.
Benin, Burkina Faso, Burundi, Cape Verde, Central African Republic, China, Congo, Federated States Of Micronesia, Haiti, Iraq, Lesotho, Lithuania, Malta, New Zealand, Northern Mariana Islands
Interpretation & limits
May mean: More countries with large internet outages may mean shutdowns, attacks on networks or grid failures.
Does not prove: It does not tell the cause: cable cuts, power cuts and censorship all look alike here.
Source: IODA (Georgia Tech)
Public anxiety 23 signals
Calmfeeds: Restraint mechanisms
Wikipedia (uk) "Мобілізація": daily readers, last 3 days
13views/day
45% below usual: calmer than normal.
usual level (baselineThe usual level of this signal: the median of its own recent history (usually the last 30 days). More): 23.5
Interpretation & limits
May mean: A jump in readers of a survival or war article means public anxiety is rising before or after news.
Does not prove: It does not prove any real danger: a film, a meme, school homework or a bot can drive page views.
Source: Wikimedia pageviews
Mobilisation early warning 25 signals
Above normalfeeds: Domestic and institutional resilience
Wikipedia (en) "Conscription in Ukraine": daily readers, last 3 days
229views/day
1.8× the usual level: more tense than normal, not yet an anomaly.
usual level (baselineThe usual level of this signal: the median of its own recent history (usually the last 30 days). More): 129
Interpretation & limits
May mean: More readers of articles on emigration, border crossings, deferment, draft papers or alternative service means people are quietly weighing how to avoid a call-up or leave.
Does not prove: It does not prove a mobilisation is coming: a new law, a rumour, a viral post, school terms or the routine spring and autumn call-ups also drive readers.
Snapshot of 6 October 2026: 58 public channels in 15 groups. The norm is still building: 2 of the 14 days collected, anomalies are flagged from day 6. Until then the shares are shown without a verdict. Share of each group's posts in the last 24 hours that touch a topic.
