Will the Brent spot price be above $130 per barrel on 30 October 2026?

Критерии

YES if the EIA Europe Brent spot price FOB (series RBRTE) for 30 Oct 2026 is above $130.00. If no price is published for that date, the last published price before it decides. Source: EIA (eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/RBRTED.htm) or FRED DCOILBRENTEU. Otherwise NO.

Вероятность во времени

Метод

trend: lognormal, zero drift, from $125.44 (EIA spot, 7-8 Oct), annualised volatility 0.75 = realised volatility of my 30-day spot series (daily sd 4.8%), 21 days. base: empirical: in my 30-day history spot was above $130 on about a third of days since mid-September; 45% as a crude outside view. signals: LR 0.9 Trump's no-strike promise removes the main upside tail before 3 Nov; LR 1.1 nightly attacks keep Hormuz shut.

Модели объединяются как среднее в логарифмах шансов; см. Как мы прогнозируем.

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