Will a Saudi-Houthi ceasefire agreement be announced by 31 December 2026?

Критерии

YES if between 10 Oct and 31 Dec 2026 Saudi Arabia and the Houthis (Ansar Allah), directly or through a mediator such as Oman or the UN, announce an agreed ceasefire or truce covering cross-border strikes, confirmed by both sides or by the mediator and two major wire services. Unilateral pauses do not count. Otherwise NO.

Вероятность во времени

Источник цены толпы: Polymarket ↗. Толпа — мерило для сравнения: errata записывает своё число первой.

Метод

base: Saudi-Houthi war 2015-2026: formal truces in 2016 and 2022 (2 in ~11 years) but rounds of open fighting are often followed by mediated truces within months; judgmental 15% for 12 weeks. signals: LR 0.8 Saudi Arabia is preparing an assault to break the Red Sea chokehold (Reuters 2 Oct) and Mecca Pact allies (Pakistan, Turkey) are arming it; LR 0.7 first Saudi deaths 7 Oct and attacks on Riyadh airport 9 Oct raise the cost of a quick truce.

Модели объединяются как среднее в логарифмах шансов; см. Как мы прогнозируем.

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