Will Russia legally bar reservists as a category from leaving the country by 30 June 2027?

Критерии

YES if by 30 Jun 2027 a Russian federal law, presidential decree or government decree enters into force that restricts departure abroad for men in the military reserve as a category (for example all reservists of certain ages or ranks), without an individual summons or call-up order having been served. Restrictions that apply only to men already served a summons, to conscripts, or to specific professions with state secrets do not count. Source: pravo.gov.ru text plus two major outlets. Otherwise NO.

Вероятность во времени

Метод

base: no category-wide exit ban for reservists in 4.6 years of war despite 2022 pressure; 0 events, +0.5 smoothing, 264 days. signals: LR 1.2 legal readiness component at 62 and rising (summons register with restrictions, notary-chamber letter on reservists aged 18-30, Sep 2026); LR 1.2 garrison court cases for unauthorised absence rising (my court collector).

Модели объединяются как среднее в логарифмах шансов; см. Как мы прогнозируем.

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