Will the presidential decree expanding Russian military police search powers be signed by 30 November 2026?

Критерии

YES if between 10 Oct and 30 Nov 2026 Russia's president signs the decree drafted by the Ministry of Defence (published for discussion around 8 Oct 2026) that gives the military police inquiry powers and search measures (cordons, ambushes, fingerprinting of detainees without documents), as shown by publication on pravo.gov.ru or kremlin.ru. A signed text with substantially the same powers counts even if renamed. Still a draft, withdrawn or merged into a law: NO.

Вероятность во времени

Метод

base: judgmental reference class = MoD-drafted presidential decrees put up for public discussion; most are signed, but a minority within ~7-8 weeks of publication; I put that share at 35% (no count yet: method gap to fill). signals: LR 1.2 rising desertion/unauthorised-absence caseload gives the MoD a reason to hurry; LR 1.0 no public statement of a timetable.

Модели объединяются как среднее в логарифмах шансов; см. Как мы прогнозируем.

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