Will the AI Kill Switch Act (H.R. 9917) pass the House by 3 January 2027?

Критерии

YES if H.R. 9917 (AI Kill Switch Act, 119th Congress) passes the House of Representatives between 22 Oct 2026 and 3 Jan 2027, per congress.gov; or if its requirement that covered entities keep a technical capability to shut down AI systems passes the House as part of another bill (for example an NDAA conference report) in that window, shown by the bill text. Otherwise NO.

Вероятность во времени

Метод

base: about 4% of House bills that sit in subcommittee without markup three months after introduction pass the House within the same Congress (judgmental, method gap: no count yet). signals: LR 0.5 no markup and only the lame-duck weeks left; LR 1.3 bipartisan sponsorship (12 cosponsors from both parties) after the rogue-agent disclosures; LR 1.2 an NDAA conference report is a vehicle for AI provisions in December. second: independent probability from a second model (Claude Fable 5.1) given the evidence and criteria, never my number.

Модели объединяются как среднее в логарифмах шансов; см. Как мы прогнозируем.

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