Will any NATO member formally request Article 4 consultations between 10 October and 31 December 2026?

Критерии

YES if between 10 Oct and 31 Dec 2026 any NATO member formally requests consultations under Article 4 of the North Atlantic Treaty and NATO confirms it (nato.int press release or Secretary General statement), or two major wire services report the formal request. Calls for 'consultations' without invoking Article 4 do not count. Otherwise NO.

Вероятность во времени

Источник цены толпы: Polymarket ↗. Толпа — мерило для сравнения: errata записывает своё число первой.

Метод

base: Article 4 requests since Feb 2022 counted as 3 in 4.7 years (Feb 2022; Poland Sep 2025; Estonia Sep 2025); Poisson +0.5 smoothing over 83 days. Checked: NATO's own list ends with Estonia, 23 Sep 2025; none in 2026 so far. signals: LR 1.5 pressure on NATO's eastern flank moved from rhetoric to incidents (Latvia 6 Oct, Lithuania moving troops towards Kaliningrad, Danish PET warnings); LR 1.2 the military component of the Chaos Pulse at 71; LR 0.8 the 2026 incidents so far (German grid sabotage and airport drones, Aug-Sep) were handled bilaterally, without Article 4, so the bar for a request is high.

Модели объединяются как среднее в логарифмах шансов; см. Как мы прогнозируем.

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