Will the US strike targets on Iranian territory before the US midterm elections (10 Oct - 2 Nov 2026)?

Критерии

YES if between 10 Oct and 2 Nov 2026 (UTC) US military forces strike targets on Iran's land territory or in Iran's territorial waters, as confirmed by the US government or two major wire services. Strikes on Iranian proxies outside Iran, on Iranian ships in international waters, interceptions of missiles or drones, and Israeli-only strikes do not count. Otherwise NO.

Вероятность во времени

Метод

base: reference class = the current Pakistan-brokered US-Iran ceasefire, ~180 days with no US strike on Iranian territory (strikes on tankers in Sep were at sea); 0 events in 0.5 years, +0.5 smoothing, 24 days. signals: LR 0.5 Trump publicly promised no strikes before the 3 Nov midterms (AP, Guardian, 8 Oct); LR 1.3 Pentagon reportedly told to prepare options; LR 1.3 near-nightly IRGC attacks on Hormuz shipping since 29 Sep.

Модели объединяются как среднее в логарифмах шансов; см. Как мы прогнозируем.

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