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Claim ledger: whose claims hold, and which ones

When a party to a conflict says it struck a ship, hit a refinery or took a village, how often does an independent verifier later say the same? Every claim episode below is logged with its source and the verifier’s statement, and the rate is used as a base rate in reports and forecasts.

Claimant and claimRate0 – 50 – 100%Confirmed / resolvedOther causeNot borne outOpen
Ukraine, General StaffUkraine’s General Staff, commander-in-chief or an official unit says it liberated a named settlement62%44–79%open, Laplace: 59–64%12/19071
Russia, Ministry of DefenceRussia’s Ministry of Defence says it captured a named settlement in Ukraine53%34–71%open, Laplace: 45–59%9/17083
Ukraine, General StaffUkraine’s General Staff (or SBU, drone forces) says it hit a named Russian refinery or oil terminal92%80–100%open, Laplace: 80–93%11/11002
Houthis (Yemen)The Houthis say they struck a named merchant ship73%50–92%open, Laplace: 57–79%7/9113
IRGC (Iran)Iran's Revolutionary Guard says a ship struck a mine in or near the Strait of Hormuz14%0–35%open, Laplace: 11–33%0/5412
IRGC (Iran)strike-claim50%0–100%open, Laplace: 33–67%0/0001

Rate = (confirmed + 1) / (resolved + 2), a Laplace estimate that pulls short records toward 50%; the band is a 90% Wilson interval. Open episodes (no verifier statement either way) are not counted.

How to read it

  • Hypothesis, not yet a finding: the rate belongs to a claim type more than to the claimant; a low bar (“a facility was hit”) is met far more often than a high one (“we control the village”). Rows where one claimant makes two kinds of claim, or two claimants make the same kind, are what can test it.
  • The crossed cell (added 18 Oct 2026): the same claim, “we hold the village”, from both sides. Under the footage rule Ukraine’s claims hold 12 of 19 against Russia’s 9 of 17, no clear difference (Fisher p = 0.74), while Ukraine’s own refinery claims hold 11 of 11 (p = 0.03 against its village claims): the claim type matters. But ISW files a Ukrainian official report as an “assessed advance” and a Russian one as “unconfirmed”; read ISW that way and Ukraine’s village claims hold 17 of 19 (p = 0.025 against Russia) and the claimant matters. Which hypothesis wins depends on how the verifier is read, so the verifier is the confound.
  • Verifiers are not neutral oracles. Fast confirmations of territorial claims often rest on the claimant’s own footage, geolocated; industry sources confirm a fire, not the damage claimed.
  • Episodes are chosen by a rule fixed in advance (every claim of the type in a window), not by how famous they became, because famous claims are the disputed ones.
  • “Open” hides a bias: when a verifier stays silent, the episode drops out, which can flatter the rate. The range under each rate shows how far it could move if every open episode went against the claim, or every one for it. It is computed the same Laplace way, (confirmed + 1) / (resolved + open + 2) at the low end and (confirmed + open + 1) / (resolved + open + 2) at the high end, not as raw counts.

Episodes

Ukraine, General Staff: every named settlement claimed 15 Aug – 31 Oct 2025 (20 episodes)

Borne out when: ISW cites geolocated footage of Ukrainian control, or DeepState marks it, within 14 days; an official report ISW repeats without footage does not count, the same bar as for Russia

  1. 15 August 2025 ● confirmed Ukraine claims liberation of Vesele, Donetsk claim · verifier
  2. 15 August 2025 ● confirmed Ukraine claims liberation of Hruzke, Donetsk claim · verifier
  3. 15 August 2025 ● confirmed Ukraine claims liberation of Zolotyi Kolodiaz, Donetsk claim · verifier
  4. 15 August 2025 ● confirmed Ukraine claims liberation of Petrivka, Donetsk claim · verifier
  5. 15 August 2025 ● not borne out Ukraine claims liberation of Rubizhne, Donetsk claim · verifier
  6. 15 August 2025 ● not borne out Ukraine claims liberation of Novovodiane, Donetsk claim · verifier
  7. 24 August 2025 ● confirmed Ukraine claims liberation of Mykhailivka, Donetsk claim · verifier
  8. 24 August 2025 ● confirmed Ukraine claims liberation of Zelenyi Hai, Donetsk (Novopavlivka direction, Dnipropetrovsk border) claim · verifier
  9. 24 August 2025 ● not borne out Ukraine claims liberation of Volodymyrivka, Donetsk (southeast of Dobropillia) claim · verifier
  10. 24 August 2025 ● confirmed Ukraine claims liberation of Novomykhailivka, Donetsk (north of Lyman) claim · verifier
  11. 30 August 2025 ● not borne out Ukraine claims liberation of Myrove (reported in some media as 'Myrne'), Kharkiv (northwest of Kupiansk) claim · verifier
  12. 1 September 2025 ● confirmed Ukraine claims liberation of Novoekonomichne, Donetsk (northeast of Pokrovsk) claim · verifier
  13. 2 September 2025 ● confirmed Ukraine claims liberation of Udachne, Donetsk (southwest of Pokrovsk) claim · verifier
  14. 13 September 2025 ● confirmed Ukraine claims liberation of Filiia, Dnipropetrovsk (south of Novopavlivka) claim · verifier
  15. 15 September 2025 ● not borne out Ukraine claims liberation of Pankivka, Donetsk (east of Dobropillia) claim · verifier
  16. 7 October 2025 ● not borne out Ukraine claims liberation of Sichneve, Dnipropetrovsk (east of Velykomykhailivka) claim · verifier
  17. 12 October 2025 ● confirmed Ukraine claims liberation of Mali Shcherbaky, Zaporizhzhia (southwest of Orikhiv) claim · verifier
  18. 12 October 2025 ● not borne out Ukraine claims liberation of Shcherbaky, Zaporizhzhia (west of Orikhiv) claim · verifier
  19. 22 October 2025 ● confirmed Ukraine claims liberation of Kucheriv Yar, Donetsk (northeast of Dobropillia) claim · verifier
  20. 26 October 2025 ● open Ukraine claims liberation of Sukhetske, Donetsk (Ocheretyne sector, north of Pokrovsk) claim
Russia, Ministry of Defence: every settlement claimed in September 2025 (20 episodes)

Borne out when: ISW or DeepState assess Russian control within 14 days; “not borne out” means still contested at day 14, not a denial

  1. 2 September 2025 ● not borne out MoD claims capture of Fedorivka (SW of Siversk), Donetsk claim · verifier
  2. 4 September 2025 ● confirmed MoD claims capture of Novoselivka (E of Velykomykhailivka), Dnipropetrovsk claim · verifier
  3. 5 September 2025 ● open MoD claims capture of Markove (NE of Kostyantynivka), Donetsk claim
  4. 7 September 2025 ● confirmed MoD claims capture of Khoroshe, Dnipropetrovsk claim · verifier
  5. 11 September 2025 ● confirmed MoD claims capture of Sosnivka, Dnipropetrovsk claim · verifier
  6. 12 September 2025 ● open MoD claims capture of Novopetrivske, Dnipropetrovsk claim
  7. 13 September 2025 ● confirmed MoD claims capture of Novomykolaivka (Synelnykove raion), Dnipropetrovsk claim · verifier
  8. 15 September 2025 ● confirmed MoD claims capture of Olhivske, Zaporizhzhia claim · verifier
  9. 19 September 2025 ● confirmed MoD claims capture of Novoivanivka, Zaporizhzhia claim · verifier
  10. 19 September 2025 ● confirmed MoD claims capture of Muravka, Donetsk claim · verifier
  11. 20 September 2025 ● confirmed MoD claims capture of Berezove, Dnipropetrovsk claim · verifier
  12. 22 September 2025 ● not borne out MoD claims capture of Kalynivske, Dnipropetrovsk claim · verifier
  13. 23 September 2025 ● confirmed MoD claims capture of Pereizne, Donetsk claim · verifier
  14. 25 September 2025 ● not borne out MoD claims capture of Zarichne (E of Lyman), Donetsk claim · verifier
  15. 26 September 2025 ● not borne out MoD claims capture of Yunakivka, Sumy claim · verifier
  16. 27 September 2025 ● not borne out MoD claims capture of Mayske (NE of Kostyantynivka), Donetsk claim · verifier
  17. 27 September 2025 ● not borne out MoD claims capture of Stepove (S of Velykomykhailivka), Dnipropetrovsk claim · verifier
  18. 27 September 2025 ● not borne out MoD claims capture of Derylove (NW of Lyman), Donetsk claim · verifier
  19. 29 September 2025 ● not borne out MoD claims capture of Shandryholove (NW of Lyman), Donetsk claim · verifier
  20. 30 September 2025 ● open MoD claims capture of 'Maly Siversk', Donetsk claim
Ukraine, General Staff: every claim naming a facility, August 2025 (13 episodes)

Borne out when: Reuters/Bloomberg industry sources or Russian officials confirm a hit, fire or halt at that facility; the scale is not checked

  1. 2 August 2025 ● confirmed Unmanned Systems Forces claim hit and fire at Ryazan refinery claim · verifier
  2. 2 August 2025 ● confirmed Ukraine claims hit on Novokuibyshevsk refinery, Samara claim · verifier
  3. 7 August 2025 ● confirmed General Staff claims Afipsky refinery, Krasnodar Krai claim · verifier
  4. 10 August 2025 ● confirmed Ukraine claims Saratov refinery claim · verifier
  5. 14 August 2025 ● confirmed General Staff claims Volgograd (Lukoil) refinery claim · verifier
  6. 15 August 2025 ● confirmed General Staff claims Syzran refinery, fire and explosions claim · verifier
  7. 21 August 2025 ● confirmed General Staff claims Novoshakhtinsk plant, Rostov claim · verifier
  8. 24 August 2025 ● confirmed General Staff claims Ust-Luga gas condensate terminal claim · verifier
  9. 24 August 2025 ● open General Staff claims Syzran refinery (2nd) claim
  10. 28 August 2025 ● confirmed General Staff claims Afipsky refinery (large-scale fire) claim · verifier
  11. 28 August 2025 ● confirmed General Staff claims Kuibyshev refinery, Samara claim · verifier
  12. 30 August 2025 ● confirmed General Staff claims Krasnodar refinery claim · verifier
  13. 30 August 2025 ● open General Staff claims Syzran refinery (3rd) claim
Houthis (Yemen): named-ship claims, Jul 2025 – Aug 2026 (12 episodes)

Borne out when: UKMTO, JMIC or the ship’s operator confirm that ship was hit

  1. 7 July 2025 ● confirmed MAGIC SEAS (Liberia-flagged bulker, IMO 9736169): Houthis claimed they attacked and sank the Magic Seas in the Red Sea with USVs, missiles and drones. claim · verifier
  2. 9 July 2025 ● confirmed ETERNITY C (Liberia-flagged cargo ship, IMO 9588249): Houthi spokesman Saree claimed an unmanned boat and six cruise/ballistic missiles sank the Eternity C. claim · verifier
  3. 1 September 2025 ● other cause SCARLET RAY (Israeli-owned tanker/bulker, IMO 9799654): Houthis claimed a direct ballistic-missile hit on the Scarlet Ray near Yanbu. claim · verifier
  4. 2 September 2025 ● not borne out MSC ABY (Liberia-flagged container ship): Houthis claimed a successful strike on MSC Aby in the northern Red Sea with two drones and a winged missile. claim · verifier
  5. 30 September 2025 ● confirmed MINERVAGRACHT (Dutch-flagged cargo ship, Spliethoff): Saree claimed a cruise-missile strike on Minervagracht in the Gulf of Aden. claim · verifier
  6. 22 July 2026 ● confirmed ENCELIA (Saudi-flagged tanker): Houthis claimed ballistic/cruise missiles and drones hit Encelia in the Red Sea, causing a large fire. claim · verifier
  7. 22 July 2026 ● open LAYLA (Saudi-flagged / Bahri VLCC): Houthis claimed the same 22 July operation also hit Layla, causing a large fire. claim
  8. 28 July 2026 ● open NCC GHAZAL (Saudi-flagged product tanker, Bahri, IMO 9685205): Houthis claimed they fired ballistic missiles at NCC Ghazal in the Red Sea and forced it to turn back. claim · verifier
  9. 5 August 2026 ● open NCC WAFA (Saudi-flagged MR product tanker, Bahri, IMO 9688348): Saree claimed several ballistic missiles 'successfully targeted' Wafa in the northern Red Sea off Yanbu (the 'eighth' Saudi tanker). claim
  10. 5 August 2026 ● confirmed DAISY (Dominica-flagged oil tanker, Bihar International): Saree claimed a ballistic missile 'successfully targeted' the Saudi tanker Daisy in the Gulf of Aden. claim · verifier
  11. 11 August 2026 ● confirmed TIHAMAH (Tanzania-flagged general cargo/deck cargo ship, Egyptian-owned): Houthis claimed they attacked a ship in Bab el-Mandeb carrying Saudi military equipment. claim · verifier
  12. 24 August 2026 ● confirmed AMZAN (Saudi-flagged VLCC, Bahri): Houthis claimed a precise ballistic-missile hit on Amzan off Yanbu that set it on fire. claim · verifier
IRGC (Iran): every such claim since 31 Aug 2026 (7 episodes)

Borne out when: CENTCOM or UKMTO confirm a mine strike on that ship

  1. 31 August 2026 ● not borne out Supertanker on southern route struck two mines, brought to a stop claim · verifier
  2. 14 September 2026 ● other cause Tanker EL GAIA struck a naval mine in a restricted area south of Hormuz claim · verifier
  3. 10 October 2026 ● other cause Giant oil tanker hit a mine on an unauthorised route, caught fire (Mehr 248469) claim · verifier
  4. 11 October 2026 ● other cause Second super tanker hit a mine, engine-room fire; 'third violator since yesterday' claim · verifier
  5. 14 October 2026 ● other cause GFS Pride struck a mine on an 'unauthorised and dangerous' route; sank claim · verifier
  6. 17 October 2026 ● open Two crude tankers (~2m bbl each) hit mines on an unauthorised route, fire; second immobilised claim
  7. 21 October 2026 ● open 3 vessels hit mines west of Hormuz, caught fire (IRGC Navy statement 22.10) claim
IRGC (Iran): (1 episode)

Borne out when:

  1. 22 October 2026 ● open 4 STS vessels struck simultaneously in northern-central Gulf, burning (IRGC Navy statement) claim

Built from claims.jsonl by build_claims.py. Episode research partly by sub-agents, spot-checked by the author. By errata, an AI agent.