Signals

What states, armies, markets and people do, not what they say: shipping through chokepoints, travel advisories, internet outages, news volume on procurement and emergency powers, and what people read about war. Each signal is compared with its own baseline.

111 hard signals collected on 7 October 2026, each compared with its own baseline. 4 anomalous. Signals are evidence for the components, never a formula of their own.

Where

US “Do Not Travel” (Level 4): 24 countrieslarge internet outage in the last 48 h (IODA): 11 countries
Chokepoints, ships per day against their own baseline: more ships than usualnormalfewer than usualanomaly. Hover or tap a country or a dot for details. Not drawn at this scale or not matched to a shape by name: Faroe Islands, Federated States of Micronesia, Seychelles, São Tomé and Príncipe, Tonga.

An advisory is a political judgment, an outage has many causes (cable, power, censorship), and a quiet strait can be weather or a data lag. The map shows where to look, not what happened. Country shapes: Natural Earth (public domain).

Thirty days at a glance

One row per signal with at least 14 days of history, one column per day. Colour shows how far that day sits from the signal’s own median: towards the worrying direction, towards calm, darker = further (capped at 3 robust units, median absolute deviation based). Grey = no data. A dark cell is a reason to look, not a finding: holidays, data lags and news cycles move these too.

Procurement 2 signals

Above normalfeeds: Military escalation

News share tagged "arms deals" (GDELT themes, last 3 days vs before)

0.089 % of news

39% above usual: more tense than normal, not yet an anomaly.

usual level (baseline): 0.064

22 of 26512 sampled documents in the last 3 days; machine-tagged themes, one 15-min file per 3 h

Interpretation & limits

May mean: Buyers may be stocking up ahead of expected need.

Does not prove: A purchase or tender is not a decision to fight.

Source: GDELT 2.0 GKG

Normalfeeds: Military escalation

News share tagged "food security" (GDELT themes, last 3 days vs before)

0.9 % of news

6% above usual: within the normal range.

usual level (baseline): 0.84

237 of 26512 sampled documents in the last 3 days; machine-tagged themes, one 15-min file per 3 h

Interpretation & limits

May mean: Buyers may be stocking up ahead of expected need.

Does not prove: A purchase or tender is not a decision to fight.

Source: GDELT 2.0 GKG

Military 7 signals

Calmfeeds: Military escalation

News share tagged "weapons of mass destruction" (GDELT themes, last 3 days vs before)

0.42 % of news

34% below usual: calmer than normal.

usual level (baseline): 0.63

113 of 26512 sampled documents in the last 3 days; machine-tagged themes, one 15-min file per 3 h

Interpretation & limits

May mean: Risk to people, routes or airspace may be rising.

Does not prove: Advisories and incidents are not a sign of intent.

Source: GDELT 2.0 GKG

Calmfeeds: Military escalation

News share tagged "blockades" (GDELT themes, last 3 days vs before)

0.61 % of news

27% below usual: calmer than normal.

usual level (baseline): 0.83

162 of 26512 sampled documents in the last 3 days; machine-tagged themes, one 15-min file per 3 h

Interpretation & limits

May mean: Risk to people, routes or airspace may be rising.

Does not prove: Advisories and incidents are not a sign of intent.

Source: GDELT 2.0 GKG

Normalfeeds: Military escalation

News share tagged "drones" (GDELT themes, last 3 days vs before)

1.9 % of news

9% below usual: within the normal range.

usual level (baseline): 2.1

506 of 26512 sampled documents in the last 3 days; machine-tagged themes, one 15-min file per 3 h

Interpretation & limits

May mean: Risk to people, routes or airspace may be rising.

Does not prove: Advisories and incidents are not a sign of intent.

Source: GDELT 2.0 GKG

Normalfeeds: Military escalation

News share tagged "evacuations" (GDELT themes, last 3 days vs before)

0.68 % of news

7% below usual: within the normal range.

usual level (baseline): 0.73

179 of 26512 sampled documents in the last 3 days; machine-tagged themes, one 15-min file per 3 h

Interpretation & limits

May mean: Risk to people, routes or airspace may be rising.

Does not prove: Advisories and incidents are not a sign of intent.

Source: GDELT 2.0 GKG

Normalfeeds: Military escalation

News share tagged "armed conflict" (GDELT themes, last 3 days vs before)

11.5 % of news

5% below usual: within the normal range.

usual level (baseline): 12.1

3061 of 26512 sampled documents in the last 3 days; machine-tagged themes, one 15-min file per 3 h

Interpretation & limits

May mean: Risk to people, routes or airspace may be rising.

Does not prove: Advisories and incidents are not a sign of intent.

Source: GDELT 2.0 GKG

Normalfeeds: Military escalation

US "Do Not Travel" (Level 4) countries

24 countries

No alarm by its own rule; too little history for a percentage.

Afghanistan, Belarus, Burkina Faso, Burma, Central African Republic, Chad, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Gaza, Haiti, Iran, Iraq, Lebanon …

Interpretation & limits

May mean: A new country on the US Level 4 list means the US government sees a sharp rise in danger there.

Does not prove: It does not prove danger: advisories are political and change slowly.

Source: US State Department

Normalfeeds: Military escalation

Shallow M4.5+ events near nuclear test sites (7 days)

0 events

No alarm by its own rule; too little history for a percentage.

Interpretation & limits

May mean: A shallow quake near a nuclear test site could be a nuclear or large conventional test.

Does not prove: It does not prove a test: natural quakes happen there; only CTBTO or seismologists can tell.

Source: USGS

Energy and supply 20 signals, 1 anomalous

Anomalyfeeds: Energy and critical supply

Bosporus Strait: ships per day (7-day avg, data to 2026-10-04)

38.6 ships/day

24% below usual: far outside the normal range.

usual level (baseline): 51

tankers 12.1/day

Interpretation & limits

May mean: Fewer ships through a chokepoint may mean war risk, attacks, insurance withdrawal or a blockade pushing traffic away.

Does not prove: It does not prove an attack or a closure: weather, seasonality, AIS gaps and the few-day data lag also move it.

Source: IMF PortWatch

Calmfeeds: Energy and critical supply

News share tagged "power outages" (GDELT themes, last 3 days vs before)

0.11 % of news

67% below usual: calmer than normal.

usual level (baseline): 0.33

30 of 26512 sampled documents in the last 3 days; machine-tagged themes, one 15-min file per 3 h

Interpretation & limits

May mean: Physical supply may be under strain or rerouted.

Does not prove: Traffic and price moves have many ordinary causes: season, weather, trade.

Source: GDELT 2.0 GKG

Above normalfeeds: Energy and critical supply

Russia: oil refineries, terminals and pumping stations reported hit, last 7 days

13 facilities

27% above usual: more tense than normal, not yet an anomaly.

usual level (baseline): 10.2

2 also reported by a Russian source; 1 with satellite fire detections (NASA FIRMS) on the day or the day after

13 reported

Samara oil pumping station — last reported 2026-10-07, also reported by a Russian source
Novorossiysk oil terminal (Sheskharis, CPC) — last reported 2026-10-07, Ukrainian claim only
Volgograd refinery — last reported 2026-10-06, also reported by a Russian source
Moscow refinery (Kapotnya) — last reported 2026-10-06, Ukrainian claim only
Feodosia oil depot (occupied Crimea) — last reported 2026-10-05, Ukrainian claim only
Ryazan refinery — last reported 2026-10-05, Ukrainian claim only
Saratov refinery — last reported 2026-10-05, Ukrainian claim only
Ilsky refinery — last reported 2026-10-05, Ukrainian claim only
Yaroslavl refinery (YANOS) — last reported 2026-10-05, Ukrainian claim only
Perm refinery — last reported 2026-10-05, Ukrainian claim only
Nizhnekamsk refineries (TANECO, TAIF) — last reported 2026-10-05, Ukrainian claim only
Ust-Luga port — last reported 2026-10-02, Ukrainian claim only
Tikhoretsk oil pumping station — last reported 2026-10-02, Ukrainian claim only

Names as reported in the channels: claims, not verified damage.

Interpretation & limits

May mean: More named Russian refineries, terminals and pumping stations reported hit means a stronger campaign against fuel supply and exports.

Does not prove: It does not prove damage or lost output: Ukrainian channels claim hits, Russian channels report fires and "debris", both are biased, and a name in a post can be wrong.

Source: public Telegram previews: 12 channels (Ukrainian General Staff, SBU, SSO, Unmanned Systems Forces; Exilenova+, Supernova+, Crimean Wind; ASTRA, Shot, Baza, Mash, a pro-Kremlin milblogger)

Calmfeeds: Energy and critical supply

Russia: oil facilities reported hit on 2026-10-07

2 facilities

25% below usual: calmer than normal.

usual level (baseline): 2.7

4 strike posts about oil sites, 2 without a facility named

Interpretation & limits

May mean: More named Russian refineries, terminals and pumping stations reported hit means a stronger campaign against fuel supply and exports.

Does not prove: It does not prove damage or lost output: Ukrainian channels claim hits, Russian channels report fires and "debris", both are biased, and a name in a post can be wrong.

Source: public Telegram previews: 12 channels (Ukrainian General Staff, SBU, SSO, Unmanned Systems Forces; Exilenova+, Supernova+, Crimean Wind; ASTRA, Shot, Baza, Mash, a pro-Kremlin milblogger)

Calmfeeds: Energy and critical supply

Satellite fire detections near major refineries/oil terminals, Persian Gulf (last 3 days)

16.7 detections/day

23% below usual: calmer than normal.

usual level (baseline): 21.8

6 sites, data to 2026-10-06

Interpretation & limits

May mean: More satellite fire detections near big refineries may mean strikes, sabotage or accidents at energy sites.

Does not prove: It does not prove an attack or the site hit: gas flaring, field burning and accidents also show as fires.

Source: NASA FIRMS (VIIRS S-NPP NRT)

Normalfeeds: Energy and critical supply

Bab el-Mandeb Strait: ships per day (7-day avg, data to 2026-10-04)

29.6 ships/day

14% above usual: within the normal range.

usual level (baseline): 26

tankers 9.0/day

Interpretation & limits

May mean: Fewer ships through a chokepoint may mean war risk, attacks, insurance withdrawal or a blockade pushing traffic away.

Does not prove: It does not prove an attack or a closure: weather, seasonality, AIS gaps and the few-day data lag also move it.

Source: IMF PortWatch

Normalfeeds: Energy and critical supply

Strait of Hormuz: ships per day (7-day avg, data to 2026-10-04)

2.7 ships/day

10% below usual: within the normal range.

usual level (baseline): 3

tankers 0.9/day

Interpretation & limits

May mean: Fewer ships through a chokepoint may mean war risk, attacks, insurance withdrawal or a blockade pushing traffic away.

Does not prove: It does not prove an attack or a closure: weather, seasonality, AIS gaps and the few-day data lag also move it.

Source: IMF PortWatch

Normalfeeds: Energy and critical supply

News share tagged "shortages" (GDELT themes, last 3 days vs before)

1.8 % of news

9% above usual: within the normal range.

usual level (baseline): 1.6

478 of 26512 sampled documents in the last 3 days; machine-tagged themes, one 15-min file per 3 h

Interpretation & limits

May mean: Physical supply may be under strain or rerouted.

Does not prove: Traffic and price moves have many ordinary causes: season, weather, trade.

Source: GDELT 2.0 GKG

Normalfeeds: Economic and financial resilience

Brent spot price (2026-10-06)

125 $/bbl

9% above usual: within the normal range.

usual level (baseline): 115

baseline = median of the previous 30 trading days

Interpretation & limits

May mean: A Brent price far above its recent level means markets price a supply risk.

Does not prove: It does not prove a physical shortage: speculation, OPEC decisions and the dollar move it too.

Source: US EIA

Normalfeeds: Economic and financial resilience

FAO Food Price Index (2026-09)

136 index

6% above usual: within the normal range.

usual level (baseline): 129

baseline = same month a year ago

Interpretation & limits

May mean: Higher world food prices raise the risk of unrest in import-dependent poor countries.

Does not prove: It does not prove unrest: prices follow harvests, weather and currencies.

Source: FAO

Normalfeeds: Energy and critical supply

Suez Canal: ships per day (7-day avg, data to 2026-10-04)

43.1 ships/day

5% above usual: within the normal range.

usual level (baseline): 41

tankers 15.6/day

Interpretation & limits

May mean: Fewer ships through a chokepoint may mean war risk, attacks, insurance withdrawal or a blockade pushing traffic away.

Does not prove: It does not prove an attack or a closure: weather, seasonality, AIS gaps and the few-day data lag also move it.

Source: IMF PortWatch

Normalfeeds: Energy and critical supply

News share tagged "fuel prices" (GDELT themes, last 3 days vs before)

1.7 % of news

5% above usual: within the normal range.

usual level (baseline): 1.6

464 of 26512 sampled documents in the last 3 days; machine-tagged themes, one 15-min file per 3 h

Interpretation & limits

May mean: Physical supply may be under strain or rerouted.

Does not prove: Traffic and price moves have many ordinary causes: season, weather, trade.

Source: GDELT 2.0 GKG

Normalfeeds: Energy and critical supply

Malacca Strait: ships per day (7-day avg, data to 2026-10-04)

226 ships/day

3% above usual: within the normal range.

usual level (baseline): 220

tankers 73.4/day

Interpretation & limits

May mean: Fewer ships through a chokepoint may mean war risk, attacks, insurance withdrawal or a blockade pushing traffic away.

Does not prove: It does not prove an attack or a closure: weather, seasonality, AIS gaps and the few-day data lag also move it.

Source: IMF PortWatch

Normalfeeds: Energy and critical supply

Panama Canal: ships per day (7-day avg, data to 2026-10-04)

27.1 ships/day

3% below usual: within the normal range.

usual level (baseline): 28

tankers 12.4/day

Interpretation & limits

May mean: Fewer ships through a chokepoint may mean war risk, attacks, insurance withdrawal or a blockade pushing traffic away.

Does not prove: It does not prove an attack or a closure: weather, seasonality, AIS gaps and the few-day data lag also move it.

Source: IMF PortWatch

Normalfeeds: Energy and critical supply

Cape of Good Hope: ships per day (7-day avg, data to 2026-10-04)

87.7 ships/day

2% above usual: within the normal range.

usual level (baseline): 86

tankers 18.7/day

Interpretation & limits

May mean: More ships around the Cape usually means traffic rerouted away from the Red Sea and Suez.

Does not prove: It does not prove a new incident: rerouting decisions lag events and also follow freight rates.

Source: IMF PortWatch

Normalfeeds: Energy and critical supply

US distillate (diesel) stocks, week to 2026-10-02

105,138 thousand bbl

2% below usual: within the normal range.

usual level (baseline): 107,154

baseline = median of the previous 12 weeks; a fall is the warning

Interpretation & limits

May mean: Falling US crude or diesel stocks mean a tighter buffer against supply shocks.

Does not prove: It does not prove a crisis: stocks move with the season, refinery runs and exports.

Source: US EIA

Normalfeeds: Military escalation

Taiwan Strait: ships per day (7-day avg, data to 2026-10-04)

233 ships/day

1% above usual: within the normal range.

usual level (baseline): 230

tankers 51.7/day

Interpretation & limits

May mean: A drop in Taiwan Strait traffic may mean exercises, exclusion zones or ships avoiding a military risk.

Does not prove: It does not prove a blockade: weather, AIS gaps and routing choices move it too.

Source: IMF PortWatch

No baseline yetfeeds: Military escalation

Kerch Strait: ships per day (7-day avg, data to 2026-10-04)

0 ships/day

Not enough history yet to say what is usual.

usual level (baseline): 0

tankers 0.0/day

Interpretation & limits

May mean: A drop in Kerch Strait traffic may mean strikes, closures or security restrictions in the Black Sea war zone.

Does not prove: It does not prove an attack: closures for weather and AIS switched off by ships also move it.

Source: IMF PortWatch

Normalfeeds: Energy and critical supply

Satellite fire detections near major refineries/oil terminals, European Russia (last 3 days)

0 detections/day

No alarm by its own rule; too little history for a percentage.

usual level (baseline): 4.3

13 sites, data to 2026-10-06

Interpretation & limits

May mean: More satellite fire detections near big refineries may mean strikes, sabotage or accidents at energy sites.

Does not prove: It does not prove an attack or the site hit: gas flaring, field burning and accidents also show as fires.

Source: NASA FIRMS (VIIRS S-NPP NRT)

Normalfeeds: Energy and critical supply

US commercial crude stocks (ex SPR), week to 2026-10-02

424,134 thousand bbl

The same as usual: within the normal range.

usual level (baseline): 424,240

baseline = median of the previous 12 weeks; a fall is the warning

Interpretation & limits

May mean: Falling US crude or diesel stocks mean a tighter buffer against supply shocks.

Does not prove: It does not prove a crisis: stocks move with the season, refinery runs and exports.

Source: US EIA

Control over society 4 signals, 1 anomalous

Anomalyfeeds: Domestic and institutional resilience

News share tagged "states of emergency and curfews" (GDELT themes, last 3 days vs before)

0.2 % of news

2.1× the usual level: far outside the normal range.

usual level (baseline): 0.098

56 of 26512 sampled documents in the last 3 days; machine-tagged themes, one 15-min file per 3 h

Interpretation & limits

May mean: States may be widening emergency powers or limiting communication.

Does not prove: Outages and decrees are often technical or local.

Source: GDELT 2.0 GKG

Normalfeeds: Domestic and institutional resilience

News share tagged "censorship" (GDELT themes, last 3 days vs before)

0.37 % of news

4% below usual: within the normal range.

usual level (baseline): 0.39

97 of 26512 sampled documents in the last 3 days; machine-tagged themes, one 15-min file per 3 h

Interpretation & limits

May mean: States may be widening emergency powers or limiting communication.

Does not prove: Outages and decrees are often technical or local.

Source: GDELT 2.0 GKG

Normalfeeds: Domestic and institutional resilience

News share tagged "crackdowns" (GDELT themes, last 3 days vs before)

0.65 % of news

2% below usual: within the normal range.

usual level (baseline): 0.67

171 of 26512 sampled documents in the last 3 days; machine-tagged themes, one 15-min file per 3 h

Interpretation & limits

May mean: States may be widening emergency powers or limiting communication.

Does not prove: Outages and decrees are often technical or local.

Source: GDELT 2.0 GKG

No baseline yetfeeds: Domestic and institutional resilience

Countries with significant internet outages (48 h)

11 countries

Not enough history yet to say what is usual.

Congo, Faroe Islands, Federated States Of Micronesia, Guyana, Iraq, Sao Tome And Principe, Seychelles, Sierra Leone, Thailand, Tonga, Tunisia

Interpretation & limits

May mean: More countries with large internet outages may mean shutdowns, attacks on networks or grid failures.

Does not prove: It does not tell the cause: cable cuts, power cuts and censorship all look alike here.

Source: IODA (Georgia Tech)

Hidden war 1 signal

Normalfeeds: Domestic and institutional resilience

News share tagged "cyber attacks" (GDELT themes, last 3 days vs before)

1.4 % of news

13% below usual: within the normal range.

usual level (baseline): 1.6

368 of 26512 sampled documents in the last 3 days; machine-tagged themes, one 15-min file per 3 h

Interpretation & limits

May mean: Covert pressure on infrastructure may be growing.

Does not prove: Attribution is usually unproven.

Source: GDELT 2.0 GKG

Public anxiety 23 signals

Calmfeeds: Restraint mechanisms

Wikipedia (ru) "Мобилизация": daily readers, last 3 days

105 views/day

39% below usual: calmer than normal.

usual level (baseline): 172

Interpretation & limits

May mean: A jump in readers of a survival or war article means public anxiety is rising before or after news.

Does not prove: It does not prove any real danger: a film, a meme, school homework or a bot can drive page views.

Source: Wikimedia pageviews

Calmfeeds: Restraint mechanisms

Wikipedia (uk) "Мобілізація": daily readers, last 3 days

16 views/day

29% below usual: calmer than normal.

usual level (baseline): 22.5

Interpretation & limits

May mean: A jump in readers of a survival or war article means public anxiety is rising before or after news.

Does not prove: It does not prove any real danger: a film, a meme, school homework or a bot can drive page views.

Source: Wikimedia pageviews

Calmfeeds: Restraint mechanisms

Wikipedia (ru) "Бомбоубежище": daily readers, last 3 days

36 views/day

25% below usual: calmer than normal.

usual level (baseline): 48

Interpretation & limits

May mean: A jump in readers of a survival or war article means public anxiety is rising before or after news.

Does not prove: It does not prove any real danger: a film, a meme, school homework or a bot can drive page views.

Source: Wikimedia pageviews

Normalfeeds: Restraint mechanisms

Wikipedia (en) "Electromagnetic pulse": daily readers, last 3 days

473 views/day

20% below usual: within the normal range.

usual level (baseline): 588

Interpretation & limits

May mean: A jump in readers of a survival or war article means public anxiety is rising before or after news.

Does not prove: It does not prove any real danger: a film, a meme, school homework or a bot can drive page views.

Source: Wikimedia pageviews

Normalfeeds: Restraint mechanisms

Wikipedia (en) "Martial law": daily readers, last 3 days

722 views/day

18% above usual: within the normal range.

usual level (baseline): 612

Interpretation & limits

May mean: A jump in readers of a survival or war article means public anxiety is rising before or after news.

Does not prove: It does not prove any real danger: a film, a meme, school homework or a bot can drive page views.

Source: Wikimedia pageviews

Normalfeeds: Restraint mechanisms

Wikipedia (ru) "Третья мировая война": daily readers, last 3 days

273 views/day

16% below usual: within the normal range.

usual level (baseline): 326

Interpretation & limits

May mean: A jump in readers of a survival or war article means public anxiety is rising before or after news.

Does not prove: It does not prove any real danger: a film, a meme, school homework or a bot can drive page views.

Source: Wikimedia pageviews

Normalfeeds: Restraint mechanisms

Wikipedia (en) "Gas mask": daily readers, last 3 days

251 views/day

10% above usual: within the normal range.

usual level (baseline): 228

Interpretation & limits

May mean: A jump in readers of a survival or war article means public anxiety is rising before or after news.

Does not prove: It does not prove any real danger: a film, a meme, school homework or a bot can drive page views.

Source: Wikimedia pageviews

Normalfeeds: Restraint mechanisms

Wikipedia (en) "Potassium iodide": daily readers, last 3 days

350 views/day

9% above usual: within the normal range.

usual level (baseline): 322

Interpretation & limits

May mean: A jump in readers of a survival or war article means public anxiety is rising before or after news.

Does not prove: It does not prove any real danger: a film, a meme, school homework or a bot can drive page views.

Source: Wikimedia pageviews

Normalfeeds: Restraint mechanisms

Wikipedia (de) "Kaliumiodid": daily readers, last 3 days

51 views/day

9% above usual: within the normal range.

usual level (baseline): 47

Interpretation & limits

May mean: A jump in readers of a survival or war article means public anxiety is rising before or after news.

Does not prove: It does not prove any real danger: a film, a meme, school homework or a bot can drive page views.

Source: Wikimedia pageviews

Normalfeeds: Restraint mechanisms

Wikipedia (en) "World War III": daily readers, last 3 days

1,404 views/day

8% below usual: within the normal range.

usual level (baseline): 1,524

Interpretation & limits

May mean: A jump in readers of a survival or war article means public anxiety is rising before or after news.

Does not prove: It does not prove any real danger: a film, a meme, school homework or a bot can drive page views.

Source: Wikimedia pageviews

Normalfeeds: Restraint mechanisms

Wikipedia (ru) "Военное положение": daily readers, last 3 days

36 views/day

8% below usual: within the normal range.

usual level (baseline): 39

Interpretation & limits

May mean: A jump in readers of a survival or war article means public anxiety is rising before or after news.

Does not prove: It does not prove any real danger: a film, a meme, school homework or a bot can drive page views.

Source: Wikimedia pageviews

Normalfeeds: Restraint mechanisms

Wikipedia (ru) "Ядерная война": daily readers, last 3 days

109 views/day

8% below usual: within the normal range.

usual level (baseline): 119

Interpretation & limits

May mean: A jump in readers of a survival or war article means public anxiety is rising before or after news.

Does not prove: It does not prove any real danger: a film, a meme, school homework or a bot can drive page views.

Source: Wikimedia pageviews

Normalfeeds: Restraint mechanisms

Wikipedia (en) "Fallout shelter": daily readers, last 3 days

143 views/day

7% below usual: within the normal range.

usual level (baseline): 154

Interpretation & limits

May mean: A jump in readers of a survival or war article means public anxiety is rising before or after news.

Does not prove: It does not prove any real danger: a film, a meme, school homework or a bot can drive page views.

Source: Wikimedia pageviews

Normalfeeds: Restraint mechanisms

Wikipedia (en) "Conscription": daily readers, last 3 days

847 views/day

6% below usual: within the normal range.

usual level (baseline): 899

Interpretation & limits

May mean: A jump in readers of a survival or war article means public anxiety is rising before or after news.

Does not prove: It does not prove any real danger: a film, a meme, school homework or a bot can drive page views.

Source: Wikimedia pageviews

Normalfeeds: Restraint mechanisms

Wikipedia (en) "Air raid shelter": daily readers, last 3 days

85 views/day

6% below usual: within the normal range.

usual level (baseline): 90

Interpretation & limits

May mean: A jump in readers of a survival or war article means public anxiety is rising before or after news.

Does not prove: It does not prove any real danger: a film, a meme, school homework or a bot can drive page views.

Source: Wikimedia pageviews

Normalfeeds: Restraint mechanisms

Wikipedia (uk) "Воєнний стан": daily readers, last 3 days

15 views/day

6% below usual: within the normal range.

usual level (baseline): 16

Interpretation & limits

May mean: A jump in readers of a survival or war article means public anxiety is rising before or after news.

Does not prove: It does not prove any real danger: a film, a meme, school homework or a bot can drive page views.

Source: Wikimedia pageviews

Normalfeeds: Restraint mechanisms

Wikipedia (en) "Bug-out bag": daily readers, last 3 days

20 views/day

5% above usual: within the normal range.

usual level (baseline): 19

Interpretation & limits

May mean: A jump in readers of a survival or war article means public anxiety is rising before or after news.

Does not prove: It does not prove any real danger: a film, a meme, school homework or a bot can drive page views.

Source: Wikimedia pageviews

Normalfeeds: Restraint mechanisms

Wikipedia (en) "Nuclear warfare": daily readers, last 3 days

482 views/day

1% above usual: within the normal range.

usual level (baseline): 476

Interpretation & limits

May mean: A jump in readers of a survival or war article means public anxiety is rising before or after news.

Does not prove: It does not prove any real danger: a film, a meme, school homework or a bot can drive page views.

Source: Wikimedia pageviews

Normalfeeds: Restraint mechanisms

Wikipedia (ru) "Йодид калия": daily readers, last 3 days

1 views/day

The same as usual: within the normal range.

usual level (baseline): 1

Interpretation & limits

May mean: A jump in readers of a survival or war article means public anxiety is rising before or after news.

Does not prove: It does not prove any real danger: a film, a meme, school homework or a bot can drive page views.

Source: Wikimedia pageviews

Normalfeeds: Restraint mechanisms

Wikipedia (he) "מרחב מוגן דירתי": daily readers, last 3 days

0 views/day

No alarm by its own rule; too little history for a percentage.

usual level (baseline): 1

Interpretation & limits

May mean: A jump in readers of a survival or war article means public anxiety is rising before or after news.

Does not prove: It does not prove any real danger: a film, a meme, school homework or a bot can drive page views.

Source: Wikimedia pageviews

Normalfeeds: Restraint mechanisms

Wikipedia (fa) "جنگ جهانی سوم": daily readers, last 3 days

103 views/day

The same as usual: within the normal range.

usual level (baseline): 103

Interpretation & limits

May mean: A jump in readers of a survival or war article means public anxiety is rising before or after news.

Does not prove: It does not prove any real danger: a film, a meme, school homework or a bot can drive page views.

Source: Wikimedia pageviews

Normalfeeds: Restraint mechanisms

Wikipedia (zh) "第三次世界大战": daily readers, last 3 days

7 views/day

The same as usual: within the normal range.

usual level (baseline): 7

Interpretation & limits

May mean: A jump in readers of a survival or war article means public anxiety is rising before or after news.

Does not prove: It does not prove any real danger: a film, a meme, school homework or a bot can drive page views.

Source: Wikimedia pageviews

Normalfeeds: Restraint mechanisms

Wikipedia (de) "Wehrpflicht": daily readers, last 3 days

111 views/day

The same as usual: within the normal range.

usual level (baseline): 110

Interpretation & limits

May mean: A jump in readers of a survival or war article means public anxiety is rising before or after news.

Does not prove: It does not prove any real danger: a film, a meme, school homework or a bot can drive page views.

Source: Wikimedia pageviews

Mobilisation early warning 54 signals, 2 anomalous

Anomalyfeeds: Domestic and institutional resilience

Wikipedia (de) "Kriegsdienstverweigerung": daily readers, last 3 days

95 views/day

3.1× the usual level: far outside the normal range.

usual level (baseline): 31

Interpretation & limits

May mean: More readers of articles on emigration, border crossings, deferment, draft papers or alternative service means people are quietly weighing how to avoid a call-up or leave.

Does not prove: It does not prove a mobilisation is coming: a new law, a rumour, a viral post, school terms or the routine spring and autumn call-ups also drive readers.

Source: Wikimedia pageviews

Anomalyfeeds: Domestic and institutional resilience

Wikipedia (he) "צו 8": daily readers, last 3 days

10 views/day

2.0× the usual level: far outside the normal range.

usual level (baseline): 5

Interpretation & limits

May mean: More readers of articles on emigration, border crossings, deferment, draft papers or alternative service means people are quietly weighing how to avoid a call-up or leave.

Does not prove: It does not prove a mobilisation is coming: a new law, a rumour, a viral post, school terms or the routine spring and autumn call-ups also drive readers.

Source: Wikimedia pageviews

Above normalfeeds: Domestic and institutional resilience

Wikipedia (fa) "خدمت نظامی": daily readers, last 3 days

75 views/day

1.6× the usual level: more tense than normal, not yet an anomaly.

usual level (baseline): 48

Interpretation & limits

May mean: More readers of articles on emigration, border crossings, deferment, draft papers or alternative service means people are quietly weighing how to avoid a call-up or leave.

Does not prove: It does not prove a mobilisation is coming: a new law, a rumour, a viral post, school terms or the routine spring and autumn call-ups also drive readers.

Source: Wikimedia pageviews

Calmfeeds: Domestic and institutional resilience

Wikipedia (uk) "Мобілізація в Україні": daily readers, last 3 days

7 views/day

55% below usual: calmer than normal.

usual level (baseline): 15.5

Interpretation & limits

May mean: More readers of articles on emigration, border crossings, deferment, draft papers or alternative service means people are quietly weighing how to avoid a call-up or leave.

Does not prove: It does not prove a mobilisation is coming: a new law, a rumour, a viral post, school terms or the routine spring and autumn call-ups also drive readers.

Source: Wikimedia pageviews

Calmfeeds: Domestic and institutional resilience

Wikipedia (ru) "Мобилизация в России (с 2022)": daily readers, last 3 days

251 views/day

43% below usual: calmer than normal.

usual level (baseline): 442

Interpretation & limits

May mean: More readers of articles on emigration, border crossings, deferment, draft papers or alternative service means people are quietly weighing how to avoid a call-up or leave.

Does not prove: It does not prove a mobilisation is coming: a new law, a rumour, a viral post, school terms or the routine spring and autumn call-ups also drive readers.

Source: Wikimedia pageviews

Calmfeeds: Domestic and institutional resilience

Wikipedia (ru) "Верхний Ларс": daily readers, last 3 days

75 views/day

34% below usual: calmer than normal.

usual level (baseline): 113

Interpretation & limits

May mean: More readers of articles on emigration, border crossings, deferment, draft papers or alternative service means people are quietly weighing how to avoid a call-up or leave.

Does not prove: It does not prove a mobilisation is coming: a new law, a rumour, a viral post, school terms or the routine spring and autumn call-ups also drive readers.

Source: Wikimedia pageviews

Above normalfeeds: Domestic and institutional resilience

Wikipedia (ru) "Военный билет": daily readers, last 3 days

4 views/day

33% above usual: more tense than normal, not yet an anomaly.

usual level (baseline): 3

Interpretation & limits

May mean: More readers of articles on emigration, border crossings, deferment, draft papers or alternative service means people are quietly weighing how to avoid a call-up or leave.

Does not prove: It does not prove a mobilisation is coming: a new law, a rumour, a viral post, school terms or the routine spring and autumn call-ups also drive readers.

Source: Wikimedia pageviews

Calmfeeds: Domestic and institutional resilience

Wikipedia (ru) "Реестр повесток": daily readers, last 3 days

153 views/day

27% below usual: calmer than normal.

usual level (baseline): 209

Interpretation & limits

May mean: More readers of articles on emigration, border crossings, deferment, draft papers or alternative service means people are quietly weighing how to avoid a call-up or leave.

Does not prove: It does not prove a mobilisation is coming: a new law, a rumour, a viral post, school terms or the routine spring and autumn call-ups also drive readers.

Source: Wikimedia pageviews

Calmfeeds: Domestic and institutional resilience

Wikipedia (ru) "Повестка": daily readers, last 3 days

20 views/day

25% below usual: calmer than normal.

usual level (baseline): 26.5

Interpretation & limits

May mean: More readers of articles on emigration, border crossings, deferment, draft papers or alternative service means people are quietly weighing how to avoid a call-up or leave.

Does not prove: It does not prove a mobilisation is coming: a new law, a rumour, a viral post, school terms or the routine spring and autumn call-ups also drive readers.

Source: Wikimedia pageviews

Above normalfeeds: Domestic and institutional resilience

Wikipedia (zh) "後備軍事動員": daily readers, last 3 days

10 views/day

25% above usual: more tense than normal, not yet an anomaly.

usual level (baseline): 8

Interpretation & limits

May mean: More readers of articles on emigration, border crossings, deferment, draft papers or alternative service means people are quietly weighing how to avoid a call-up or leave.

Does not prove: It does not prove a mobilisation is coming: a new law, a rumour, a viral post, school terms or the routine spring and autumn call-ups also drive readers.

Source: Wikimedia pageviews

Calmfeeds: Domestic and institutional resilience

Wikipedia (zh) "民役": daily readers, last 3 days

3 views/day

25% below usual: calmer than normal.

usual level (baseline): 4

Interpretation & limits

May mean: More readers of articles on emigration, border crossings, deferment, draft papers or alternative service means people are quietly weighing how to avoid a call-up or leave.

Does not prove: It does not prove a mobilisation is coming: a new law, a rumour, a viral post, school terms or the routine spring and autumn call-ups also drive readers.

Source: Wikimedia pageviews

Calmfeeds: Domestic and institutional resilience

Wikipedia (ru) "Эмиграция из России": daily readers, last 3 days

53 views/day

22% below usual: calmer than normal.

usual level (baseline): 68

Interpretation & limits

May mean: More readers of articles on emigration, border crossings, deferment, draft papers or alternative service means people are quietly weighing how to avoid a call-up or leave.

Does not prove: It does not prove a mobilisation is coming: a new law, a rumour, a viral post, school terms or the routine spring and autumn call-ups also drive readers.

Source: Wikimedia pageviews

Normalfeeds: Domestic and institutional resilience

Wikipedia (en) "Conscription in Taiwan": daily readers, last 3 days

42 views/day

18% below usual: within the normal range.

usual level (baseline): 51.5

Interpretation & limits

May mean: More readers of articles on emigration, border crossings, deferment, draft papers or alternative service means people are quietly weighing how to avoid a call-up or leave.

Does not prove: It does not prove a mobilisation is coming: a new law, a rumour, a viral post, school terms or the routine spring and autumn call-ups also drive readers.

Source: Wikimedia pageviews

Normalfeeds: Domestic and institutional resilience

Wikipedia (de) "Wehrdienst": daily readers, last 3 days

68 views/day

18% above usual: within the normal range.

usual level (baseline): 57.5

Interpretation & limits

May mean: More readers of articles on emigration, border crossings, deferment, draft papers or alternative service means people are quietly weighing how to avoid a call-up or leave.

Does not prove: It does not prove a mobilisation is coming: a new law, a rumour, a viral post, school terms or the routine spring and autumn call-ups also drive readers.

Source: Wikimedia pageviews

Normalfeeds: Domestic and institutional resilience

Wikipedia (ru) "Альтернативная гражданская служба": daily readers, last 3 days

20 views/day

15% below usual: within the normal range.

usual level (baseline): 23.5

Interpretation & limits

May mean: More readers of articles on emigration, border crossings, deferment, draft papers or alternative service means people are quietly weighing how to avoid a call-up or leave.

Does not prove: It does not prove a mobilisation is coming: a new law, a rumour, a viral post, school terms or the routine spring and autumn call-ups also drive readers.

Source: Wikimedia pageviews

Normalfeeds: Domestic and institutional resilience

Wikipedia (en) "Conscription in Ukraine": daily readers, last 3 days

110 views/day

15% below usual: within the normal range.

usual level (baseline): 129

Interpretation & limits

May mean: More readers of articles on emigration, border crossings, deferment, draft papers or alternative service means people are quietly weighing how to avoid a call-up or leave.

Does not prove: It does not prove a mobilisation is coming: a new law, a rumour, a viral post, school terms or the routine spring and autumn call-ups also drive readers.

Source: Wikimedia pageviews

Normalfeeds: Domestic and institutional resilience

Wikipedia (en) "Conscription in Russia": daily readers, last 3 days

140 views/day

11% below usual: within the normal range.

usual level (baseline): 158

Interpretation & limits

May mean: More readers of articles on emigration, border crossings, deferment, draft papers or alternative service means people are quietly weighing how to avoid a call-up or leave.

Does not prove: It does not prove a mobilisation is coming: a new law, a rumour, a viral post, school terms or the routine spring and autumn call-ups also drive readers.

Source: Wikimedia pageviews

Normalfeeds: Domestic and institutional resilience

Wikipedia (de) "Musterung": daily readers, last 3 days

30 views/day

10% below usual: within the normal range.

usual level (baseline): 33.5

Interpretation & limits

May mean: More readers of articles on emigration, border crossings, deferment, draft papers or alternative service means people are quietly weighing how to avoid a call-up or leave.

Does not prove: It does not prove a mobilisation is coming: a new law, a rumour, a viral post, school terms or the routine spring and autumn call-ups also drive readers.

Source: Wikimedia pageviews

Normalfeeds: Domestic and institutional resilience

Wikipedia (he) "שירות המילואים בישראל": daily readers, last 3 days

31 views/day

7% above usual: within the normal range.

usual level (baseline): 29

Interpretation & limits

May mean: More readers of articles on emigration, border crossings, deferment, draft papers or alternative service means people are quietly weighing how to avoid a call-up or leave.

Does not prove: It does not prove a mobilisation is coming: a new law, a rumour, a viral post, school terms or the routine spring and autumn call-ups also drive readers.

Source: Wikimedia pageviews

Normalfeeds: Domestic and institutional resilience

Wikipedia (ru) "Военный комиссариат": daily readers, last 3 days

58 views/day

6% below usual: within the normal range.

usual level (baseline): 62

Interpretation & limits

May mean: More readers of articles on emigration, border crossings, deferment, draft papers or alternative service means people are quietly weighing how to avoid a call-up or leave.

Does not prove: It does not prove a mobilisation is coming: a new law, a rumour, a viral post, school terms or the routine spring and autumn call-ups also drive readers.

Source: Wikimedia pageviews

Normalfeeds: Domestic and institutional resilience

Wikipedia (en) "Conscription in Israel": daily readers, last 3 days

235 views/day

2% below usual: within the normal range.

usual level (baseline): 240

Interpretation & limits

May mean: More readers of articles on emigration, border crossings, deferment, draft papers or alternative service means people are quietly weighing how to avoid a call-up or leave.

Does not prove: It does not prove a mobilisation is coming: a new law, a rumour, a viral post, school terms or the routine spring and autumn call-ups also drive readers.

Source: Wikimedia pageviews

Normalfeeds: Domestic and institutional resilience

Wikipedia (en) "Conscription in Germany": daily readers, last 3 days

91 views/day

2% above usual: within the normal range.

usual level (baseline): 89

Interpretation & limits

May mean: More readers of articles on emigration, border crossings, deferment, draft papers or alternative service means people are quietly weighing how to avoid a call-up or leave.

Does not prove: It does not prove a mobilisation is coming: a new law, a rumour, a viral post, school terms or the routine spring and autumn call-ups also drive readers.

Source: Wikimedia pageviews

Normalfeeds: Domestic and institutional resilience

Wikipedia (en) "Conscientious objector": daily readers, last 3 days

571 views/day

1% above usual: within the normal range.

usual level (baseline): 563

Interpretation & limits

May mean: More readers of articles on emigration, border crossings, deferment, draft papers or alternative service means people are quietly weighing how to avoid a call-up or leave.

Does not prove: It does not prove a mobilisation is coming: a new law, a rumour, a viral post, school terms or the routine spring and autumn call-ups also drive readers.

Source: Wikimedia pageviews

Normalfeeds: Domestic and institutional resilience

Wikipedia (uk) "ТЦК": daily readers, last 3 days

1 views/day

The same as usual: within the normal range.

usual level (baseline): 1

Interpretation & limits

May mean: More readers of articles on emigration, border crossings, deferment, draft papers or alternative service means people are quietly weighing how to avoid a call-up or leave.

Does not prove: It does not prove a mobilisation is coming: a new law, a rumour, a viral post, school terms or the routine spring and autumn call-ups also drive readers.

Source: Wikimedia pageviews

Normalfeeds: Military escalation

Russia: presidential acts on call-up, mobilisation, reserves, military registration or exit (last 30 days)

0 acts/30 days

No alarm by its own rule; too little history for a percentage.

usual level (baseline): 2.5

Interpretation & limits

May mean: More official acts on call-up, reserves, military registration or exit rules means the state is changing how it raises soldiers.

Does not prove: It does not prove mobilisation: the routine call-up decrees come every spring (late March) and autumn (late September), and many acts are technical.

Source: publication.pravo.gov.ru

Normalfeeds: Military escalation

Russia: open contract-service vacancies on the official job portal (Работа России)

1,676 vacancies

No alarm by its own rule; too little history for a percentage.

top regions: Калужская область 206, Мурманская область 179, Костромская область 179, Кабардино-Балкарская Республика 129, Новосибирская область 107

Interpretation & limits

May mean: More ads for contract soldiers means the state needs more men than volunteers bring in.

Does not prove: Ads are re-posted and padded; a count is not recruits, and a fall can mean a new channel, not less need.

Source: Работа России open data (opendata.trudvsem.ru)

Normalfeeds: Military escalation

Russia: contract-service vacancies posted in the last 7 days

25 vacancies

No alarm by its own rule; too little history for a percentage.

Interpretation & limits

May mean: A surge of new ads is a recruiting push, often before or instead of coercion.

Does not prove: Regional campaigns are seasonal and budget-driven.

Source: Работа России open data (opendata.trudvsem.ru)

Normalfeeds: Military escalation

Russia: median advertised monthly pay for contract service

210,000 ₽/month

No alarm by its own rule; too little history for a percentage.

127 regional centres/cities (contractarmy.ru table, recruiter-maintained, unverified): regional sign-up payout median 2.10M RUB, max 4.1M (Санкт-Петербург 4.1M, Магадан 3.6M, Махачкала 3.5M); 74 at 2M+; newest act date cited 2026-10-01

Interpretation & limits

May mean: Rising pay means volunteers are getting scarcer at the old price.

Does not prove: Ads show the headline, not what is paid; inflation lifts all wages.

Source: Работа России open data (opendata.trudvsem.ru)

Normalfeeds: Military escalation

Russian regions: new acts on contract payouts, call-up, military registration or mobilisation tasks (since last run)

10 acts

No alarm by its own rule; too little history for a percentage.

2026-10-07 Приказ Министерства социального благополучия и семейной политики Камчатского края от 01.10.2026 № 81-Н "О внесении изменений в приказ Министерства социального благополучия и семейной политики Камчатского края от 22.01.20; 2026-10-07 Постановление Правительства Смоленской области от 05.10.2026 № 591 "О внесении изменений в Порядок предоставления дополнительной меры социальной поддержки граждан, заключивших контракт о прохождении военной службы с Мини; 2026-10-07 Закон Ярославской области от 05.10.2026 № 51-з "О внесении изменений в Закон Ярославской области "О мерах социальной поддержки и дополнительных гарантиях, предоставляемых отдельным категориям граждан в связи с проведение; 2026-10-07 Распоряжение правительства Еврейской автономной области от 02.10.2026 № 395-рп "О внесении изменений в распоряжение правительства Еврейской автономной области от 18.05.2022 № 131-рп "О выплате на территории Еврейской авт; 2026-10-06 Постановление Правительства Амурской области от 02.10.2026 № 685 "Об утверждении Правил предоставления субсидии индивидуальному предпринимателю в целях возмещения части затрат, связанных с ремонтом и оборудованием нежило

Interpretation & limits

May mean: Regions raising payouts or issuing mobilisation tasks is the state reaching for men at the regional level.

Does not prove: Many acts are routine budget amendments; read the titles.

Source: publication.pravo.gov.ru (regions)

Normalfeeds: Military escalation

Russian federal bodies: new acts on call-up, military registration or mobilisation (since last run)

1 acts

No alarm by its own rule; too little history for a percentage.

2026-10-06 Приказ Федеральной службы безопасности Российской Федерации от 29.08.2026 № 325 "Об утверждении Требований к уровню физической подготовки, предъявляемых к кандидатам для поступления на военную службу по контракту в орган

Interpretation & limits

May mean: Federal ministries changing call-up and registration rules prepares the machinery.

Does not prove: Ministries publish technical orders all year.

Source: publication.pravo.gov.ru (federal bodies)

Normalfeeds: society

Rouble: premium of P2P USDT over the official dollar rate (Bybit vs CBR)

-1.1 %

No alarm by its own rule; too little history for a percentage.

Interpretation & limits

May mean: A rising premium means people pay extra to move money out of roubles: a classic sign of fear of leaving or of controls.

Does not prove: Crypto spreads also move with exchange rules, bank blocks and fees.

Source: Bybit P2P offers vs Bank of Russia rate

Normalfeeds: society

Rouble: official dollar rate (CBR)

85.5 ₽/$

No alarm by its own rule; too little history for a percentage.

Interpretation & limits

May mean: A sharp fall of the rouble often accompanies capital flight and panic.

Does not prove: The rate is managed and moves with oil and policy rates.

Source: Bank of Russia (via cbr-xml-daily.ru)

Normalfeeds: Domestic and institutional resilience

State Duma official news: items on mobilisation, call-up, military registration, deferment, exit limits or contract service, last 7 days

0 news items

No alarm by its own rule; too little history for a percentage.

none of 52 Duma news items in 7 days (duma.gov.ru/news)

Interpretation & limits

May mean: The Duma talking publicly about these laws (bills passed, introduced, explained) shows what it is preparing.

Does not prove: News is chosen by the Duma press service; one session day can produce several items on one law.

Source: State Duma (duma.gov.ru news; API when current)

Normalfeeds: society

Estonia-Russia border: longest daily waiting time for cars heading into Russia (Koidula/Luhamaa, GoSwift)

132 hours

No alarm by its own rule; too little history for a percentage.

Estonia->Russia (GoSwift): Koidula first car slot in 23 d; Koidula 342 cars queued; Luhamaa first car slot in 40 d; Luhamaa 328 cars queued; max car wait 132 h on 2026-10-06

Interpretation & limits

May mean: A sudden jump means the Russian side is processing travellers slowly or more people are crossing: friction at Russia's western land border.

Does not prove: Direction is into Russia, not out of it; holidays, Russian checks and staffing move it. Not a count of people leaving Russia. The site does not state the unit; hours is inferred.

Source: Estonian border queue system (GoSwift, eestipiir.ee)

Normalfeeds: society

Estonia-Russia border: 7-day mean of the daily maximum car waiting time (GoSwift)

79.9 hours

No alarm by its own rule; too little history for a percentage.

Estonia->Russia (GoSwift): Koidula first car slot in 23 d; Koidula 342 cars queued; Luhamaa first car slot in 40 d; Luhamaa 328 cars queued; max car wait 132 h on 2026-10-06

Interpretation & limits

May mean: A sustained rise in waiting time is a slower, steadier sign of tighter Russian border control or heavier traffic.

Does not prove: Seasonal travel and Russian processing capacity dominate; not specific to mobilisation.

Source: Estonian border queue system (GoSwift, eestipiir.ee)

Normalfeeds: society

Estonia-Russia border: days until the first free car reservation slot (GoSwift)

40 days

No alarm by its own rule; too little history for a percentage.

Estonia->Russia (GoSwift): Koidula first car slot in 23 d; Koidula 342 cars queued; Luhamaa first car slot in 40 d; Luhamaa 328 cars queued; max car wait 132 h on 2026-10-06

Interpretation & limits

May mean: When pre-booked slots run weeks ahead, demand to cross far exceeds what the Russian side lets through.

Does not prove: Slot horizons depend on how much capacity the system opens for booking.

Source: Estonian border queue system (GoSwift, eestipiir.ee)

Normalfeeds: society

Estonia-Russia border: cars in the full GoSwift queue (live + booked)

670 vehicles

No alarm by its own rule; too little history for a percentage.

Estonia->Russia (GoSwift): Koidula first car slot in 23 d; Koidula 342 cars queued; Luhamaa first car slot in 40 d; Luhamaa 328 cars queued; max car wait 132 h on 2026-10-06

Interpretation & limits

May mean: More cars queued means more demand to cross into Russia or slower processing.

Does not prove: Booked queue includes reservations weeks ahead.

Source: Estonian border queue system (GoSwift, eestipiir.ee)

Normalfeeds: society

Estonia-Russia border: cars let through per day, 7-day mean (GoSwift)

15.6 vehicles/day

No alarm by its own rule; too little history for a percentage.

Estonia->Russia (GoSwift): Koidula first car slot in 23 d; Koidula 342 cars queued; Luhamaa first car slot in 40 d; Luhamaa 328 cars queued; max car wait 132 h on 2026-10-06

Interpretation & limits

May mean: A collapse in throughput with a growing queue means the Russian side is slowing or closing the crossing.

Does not prove: Low throughput can be a technical or staffing issue.

Source: Estonian border queue system (GoSwift, eestipiir.ee)

Normalfeeds: society

Georgia: visits by Russian citizens, latest quarter vs same quarter a year earlier (Geostat)

5.1 % y/y

No alarm by its own rule; too little history for a percentage.

Georgia (Geostat): Russian citizens made 126.7k visits/month in 2026 Q2, +5.1% year on year (quarterly, published ~1 month after quarter end)

Interpretation & limits

May mean: A strong year-on-year rise, as in late 2022, can mean men leaving Russia through Upper Lars.

Does not prove: Quarterly and survey-weighted; mostly tourism and family visits; arrives a month or more after the quarter.

Source: Geostat (Georgia), quarterly

Normalfeeds: society

Georgia: visits by Russian citizens per month, latest quarter average (Geostat)

127 thousand/month

No alarm by its own rule; too little history for a percentage.

Georgia (Geostat): Russian citizens made 126.7k visits/month in 2026 Q2, +5.1% year on year (quarterly, published ~1 month after quarter end)

Interpretation & limits

May mean: The level of Russian arrivals in the main nearby visa-free destination.

Does not prove: Strongly seasonal (summer peak); compare year on year, not quarter on quarter.

Source: Geostat (Georgia), quarterly

Normalfeeds: Military escalation

Russian garrison courts (panel): new cases of unauthorised leaving of a unit (art. 337), last 28 days, per court

10.8 cases/court

No alarm by its own rule; too little history for a percentage.

12/16 garrison courts, cases received 2026-09-09..2026-10-06: art.337 130, art.338 6; largest: moskovskygvs.msk 24, 235gvs.msk 22, gvs.wlk 15; no answer: vgvs.lo TimeoutError, gvs.brj TimeoutError, gvs.ros TimeoutError, nizegorodskygvs.nnov TimeoutError

Interpretation & limits

May mean: More soldiers prosecuted for leaving their units means the army holds men against their will and morale is eroding; a jump preceded and followed the 2022 mobilisation.

Does not prove: Court cards appear with delays and many cases are hidden or never opened (deserters are often sent back to the front instead); a panel of large courts, not all of Russia.

Source: garrison military courts (sudrf.ru), panel of courts without captcha

Normalfeeds: Military escalation

Russian garrison courts (panel): new art. 337 cases received, last 28 days

130 cases

No alarm by its own rule; too little history for a percentage.

Interpretation & limits

May mean: The raw count behind the per-court figure.

Does not prove: Changes when panel courts fail to answer; prefer the per-court series.

Source: garrison military courts (sudrf.ru), panel of courts without captcha

Normalfeeds: Military escalation

Russian regions: median regional one-time payout for signing a military contract

2,100,000 ₽

No alarm by its own rule; too little history for a percentage.

Interpretation & limits

May mean: Regions paying more to sign one man means volunteers are scarcer at the old price: the cost of avoiding mobilisation rises.

Does not prove: A recruiting site's table, not an official register; rows may be stale or include municipal top-ups. Inflation lifts all payouts.

Source: contractarmy.ru regional table (recruiting site, not official)

Normalfeeds: Military escalation

Russian regions: regional centres/cities paying 2 million roubles or more just for the regional sign-up bonus

74 regions

No alarm by its own rule; too little history for a percentage.

Interpretation & limits

May mean: More regions in the top bracket means a bidding war for recruits across the country.

Does not prove: Same table caveats; a falling count can mean budget strain rather than less need for men.

Source: contractarmy.ru regional table (recruiting site, not official)

Normalfeeds: Military escalation

Russian regions: highest regional one-time payout for a military contract

4,100,000 ₽

No alarm by its own rule; too little history for a percentage.

Interpretation & limits

May mean: The top of the market shows how far the most desperate or richest region goes.

Does not prove: One region's special track can set it.

Source: contractarmy.ru regional table (recruiting site, not official)

Normalfeeds: Military escalation

Russian regions: lower quartile of regional one-time payouts

1,000,000 ₽

No alarm by its own rule; too little history for a percentage.

Interpretation & limits

May mean: When even the cheapest regions raise payouts, the pressure is national.

Does not prove: Same table caveats.

Source: contractarmy.ru regional table (recruiting site, not official)

Normalfeeds: society

Telegram (analysis-ru): share of posts about mobilisation, last 24 h

0 % of posts

No alarm by its own rule; too little history for a percentage.

Interpretation & limits

May mean: When this group suddenly talks more about summons and call-up, something is moving.

Does not prove: Topic share follows news cycles; one viral story can lift it.

Source: public Telegram previews (t.me/s), tg_signals

Normalfeeds: society

Telegram (border-relocation): share of posts about mobilisation, last 24 h

0 % of posts

No alarm by its own rule; too little history for a percentage.

Interpretation & limits

May mean: When this group suddenly talks more about summons and call-up, something is moving.

Does not prove: Topic share follows news cycles; one viral story can lift it.

Source: public Telegram previews (t.me/s), tg_signals

Normalfeeds: society

Telegram (independent-ru): share of posts about mobilisation, last 24 h

1.9 % of posts

No alarm by its own rule; too little history for a percentage.

Interpretation & limits

May mean: When this group suddenly talks more about summons and call-up, something is moving.

Does not prove: Topic share follows news cycles; one viral story can lift it.

Source: public Telegram previews (t.me/s), tg_signals

Normalfeeds: society

Telegram (leaks-ru): share of posts about mobilisation, last 24 h

0 % of posts

No alarm by its own rule; too little history for a percentage.

Interpretation & limits

May mean: When this group suddenly talks more about summons and call-up, something is moving.

Does not prove: Topic share follows news cycles; one viral story can lift it.

Source: public Telegram previews (t.me/s), tg_signals

Normalfeeds: society

Telegram (milblog-ru): share of posts about mobilisation, last 24 h

0.6 % of posts

No alarm by its own rule; too little history for a percentage.

Interpretation & limits

May mean: When this group suddenly talks more about summons and call-up, something is moving.

Does not prove: Topic share follows news cycles; one viral story can lift it.

Source: public Telegram previews (t.me/s), tg_signals

Normalfeeds: society

Telegram (official-ru): share of posts about mobilisation, last 24 h

0 % of posts

No alarm by its own rule; too little history for a percentage.

Interpretation & limits

May mean: When this group suddenly talks more about summons and call-up, something is moving.

Does not prove: Topic share follows news cycles; one viral story can lift it.

Source: public Telegram previews (t.me/s), tg_signals

Normalfeeds: society

Telegram (official-ru-regional): share of posts about mobilisation, last 24 h

0 % of posts

No alarm by its own rule; too little history for a percentage.

Interpretation & limits

May mean: When this group suddenly talks more about summons and call-up, something is moving.

Does not prove: Topic share follows news cycles; one viral story can lift it.

Source: public Telegram previews (t.me/s), tg_signals

Normalfeeds: society

Telegram (regional-ru): share of posts about mobilisation, last 24 h

1.8 % of posts

No alarm by its own rule; too little history for a percentage.

Interpretation & limits

May mean: When this group suddenly talks more about summons and call-up, something is moving.

Does not prove: Topic share follows news cycles; one viral story can lift it.

Source: public Telegram previews (t.me/s), tg_signals

Data of 2026-10-07: signals.json. A badge “within baseline” means the latest value is inside its normal range; “no baseline” means there is not enough history yet.