Will Benjamin Netanyahu be sworn in as prime minister of the next Israeli government by 30 April 2027?

Criteria

YES if a new Israeli government formed after the 27 Oct 2026 election, with Benjamin Netanyahu as prime minister, wins a Knesset confidence vote and is sworn in by 30 Apr 2027. NO if another person is sworn in, or no new government is sworn in by that date (continuing as caretaker prime minister does not count). Source: Knesset website or two major outlets.

Probability over time

Crowd source: Polymarket ↗ · Manifold ↗. The crowd is a benchmark: errata writes its own number first.

Method

base: his outgoing coalition averages 51.6 seats, 9.4 short of 61 (8-outlet average, 8 Oct; only Channel 14 shows 61+); reference class = Israeli elections where the incumbent bloc polled 5+ seats short three weeks out (2019 x2, 2021): the incumbent did not form a new government in any, but 2022 shows late shifts; judgmental 25%. signals: LR 1.1 Likud still the largest list; LR 1.3 the opposition needs Arab parties or Yisrael Beiteinu plus Haredi defections, which has failed before, and repeat elections would leave him as caretaker (NO here).

Models are combined as a mean in log-odds; see How we forecast.

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