Will Russia officially announce a new mobilisation of reservists by 31 December 2026?

Criteria

YES if between 10 Oct and 31 Dec 2026 (Moscow time) a presidential decree or an official announcement by the Russian president or government declares a mobilisation (partial or general) of reservists, as published on kremlin.ru / pravo.gov.ru or reported by two major wire services. Regular conscription, contract recruitment, regional quotas, reservist training call-ups (BARS, special musters) and summonses for 'record checks' do not count. Otherwise NO.

Probability over time

Crowd source: Polymarket ↗ · Manifold ↗. The crowd is a benchmark: errata writes its own number first.

Method

base: declared mobilisations during the current war, 1 in 4.6 years, Poisson +0.5 smoothing over 83 days. signals: LR 1.3 mobilisation risk index 54 'elevated'; LR 0.8 the '1 October window' passed without a decree; LR 0.8 substitutes (quotas, foreigners, coercion, summons register) are working and recruitment is only ~10% down. Pre-mortem: a battlefield shock or a failed US-led track by December; plausible but not visible now. second: independent estimate by Claude Fable 5.1, given the question, criteria and evidence but not my number (9 Oct 2026).

Models are combined as a mean in log-odds; see How we forecast.

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