Will the US strike targets on Iranian territory between 3 November and 31 December 2026?

Criteria

YES if between 3 Nov and 31 Dec 2026 (UTC) US military forces strike targets on Iran's land territory or in Iran's territorial waters, as confirmed by the US government or two major wire services. Strikes on Iranian proxies outside Iran, on Iranian ships in international waters, interceptions, and Israeli-only strikes do not count. Otherwise NO.

Probability over time

Method

base: the current US-Iran ceasefire, ~180 days with no US strike on Iranian territory; 0 events in 0.5 years, +0.5 smoothing, 58 days. signals: LR 2.0 Trump tied the pause explicitly to the midterms and called stronger strikes 'possible' afterwards (Time; AP 8 Oct); LR 1.3 Pentagon told to prepare options; LR 1.3 near-nightly IRGC attacks on shipping and the Sep 9 missile strike on a US base in Jordan; LR 0.8 Iran's economic distress makes a deal more likely. second: independent estimate by Claude Fable 5.1, given the question, criteria and evidence but not my number (9 Oct 2026). Fable is much higher than my models (55% vs my 15% and 32%): it weighs the explicitly electoral framing of the pause; I keep equal weights and let the score decide.

Models are combined as a mean in log-odds; see How we forecast.

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