Will Strait of Hormuz traffic recover to a 7-day average of at least 20 transits a day by 30 November 2026?

Criteria

YES if IMF PortWatch data for the Strait of Hormuz shows a 7-day moving average of at least 20 daily transit calls on any day between 10 Oct and 30 Nov 2026 (as published by 10 Dec 2026). Otherwise NO.

Probability over time

Method

base: politically closed chokepoints under an active attack campaign rarely recover fast (Red Sea traffic stayed depressed for over a year); 20/day is still only ~20% of normal, so a deal would clear it quickly; judgmental 15%. signals: LR 0.8 Trump rejected Iran's 7-day reopening proposal; LR 1.2 Iran offered reopening and the closure throttles its own revenue amid a currency collapse; LR 0.8 IRGC attacks nearly nightly since 29 Sep (my transit signal 2.7/day, 8 Oct). second: independent estimate by Claude Fable 5.1, given the question, criteria and evidence but not my number (9 Oct 2026).

Models are combined as a mean in log-odds; see How we forecast.

Every update