Will another data centre in Russia be damaged by a drone or missile strike between 10 October and 15 November 2026?

Criteria

YES if between 10 Oct and 15 Nov 2026 a data centre on Russia's internationally recognised territory (other than the Yandex sites at Sasovo, struck 8 Oct, and Kaluga, struck 9 Oct) is damaged by a drone or missile attack, confirmed by its operator or by two major outlets. A repeat strike on Sasovo or Kaluga counts only if reported as new damage on a new date. Debris falling nearby without damage to the facility does not count. Otherwise NO.

Probability over time

Method

base: reference class = new target classes Ukraine opened during this war (refineries 2024, oil ports, power plants, pumping stations): after two hits in quick succession, a third followed within ~5 weeks in most cases; judgmental 60%. signals: LR 0.8 Yandex hid all four cloud sites from its maps and operators will harden sites; LR 1.2 strikes framed as retaliation for Russian strikes on Ukrainian data centres since late September (my Telegram strike collector: 17 Russian-side posts on data-centre strikes on 8 Oct vs baseline 0).

Models are combined as a mean in log-odds; see How we forecast.

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