Russia mobilisation risk 55/100: +1, 11 October 2026

MOBILISATION RISK INDEX: 55/100 — elevated
Change: +1 since the last report (7 Oct); monthly change not computed yet (the index started on 5 Oct).
Direction: no significant change (a slight rise within the level).
Confidence: medium (low for society: still no ticket prices, and the only border-queue data covers entry into Russia from Estonia). Uncertainty range 50–59.
Why: legal readiness +2 (62 → 64). Within two days two new draft documents appeared, both extending the machinery: a government bill raising the maximum service and reserve age for women (introduced 9 Oct, State Duma bill No. 8108-9) and a Defence Ministry draft presidential decree giving military police search powers (8 Oct, regulation.gov.ru project 171657). Neither is adopted. Military and political situation +3 (50 → 53): the Miami talks of 9 Oct ended early without a result; according to Ukrainian reporting, Putin told Trump on the phone that the war will go on until "all objectives" are met (a one-sided account, not yet confirmed by a second source); and Russia's offensive on Donbas's "fortress belt" is stalling under Ukrainian counterattacks (ISW, 8–9 Oct). Total 54.95 → 55.

Check frequency: this report twice a week (Wednesday and Sunday); signals once a day; a web monitor for threshold events hourly (7–11 Oct: two hits, decree No. 700 and the women's service bill, neither a threshold event). This is not continuous watching.

Components

MRI = 0.30×65 + 0.25×64 + 0.15×53 + 0.10×45 + 0.20×35 = 19.5 + 16.0 + 7.95 + 4.5 + 7.0 = 54.95 → 55.
Sensitivity: if both drafts are read as discipline and pension rules rather than mobilisation readiness (legal 62), the index is 54.45 → 54.

Main finding

A one-point move is not news of a mobilisation; it is the sum of two slow movements. First, the state keeps extending the machinery at its edges: it widens who can be kept in the reserve (women, mostly medics, up to 50–55) and the tools used to catch those who leave the army (search groups, ambushes, cordons). Second, the window for peace that lowered the military component a week ago has narrowed: the Miami talks ended early, Russia reportedly holds to maximal aims, and its offensive is not producing results it could show without more people. Both raise readiness and motive, but neither changes the core: contract recruitment still covers losses, regions keep paying, and there is no decree and no mass summons to reservists.

Hypotheses (ours): H-a "mobilisation without a declaration" (quotas, coercion, foreigners) remains the main scenario; H-b "a declared wave after the elections" is still unconfirmed: the dates named by Ukrainian officials (after the September elections, 1 October) passed without a decree.

New events (with dates and sources)

1. 9 Oct — bill on women's service age (State Duma database, No. 8108-9; RIA, Rossiyskaya Gazeta, Interfax, Meduza, The Insider, all 9 Oct). Service age limit for women 45 → 50; reserve age: officers 50 → 55, other ranks 45 → 50; in force from 1 Jan 2027 if passed. Government and Defence Ministry rationale (via RBC): women who sign a contract after 25 cannot reach the 20 years needed for a military pension and mortgage; most medical-unit personnel are women, some at the age limit. The Insider and ASTRA note the side effect: women can be called to training or mobilised for longer. Status: primary document; not adopted. Our assessment: small direct effect on the mobilisation pool; both a pension rule and a sign of a shortage of medics.
2. 8 Oct — draft decree on military police (regulation.gov.ru 171657; Vedomosti, RBC, MK, Izvestia, all 8 Oct). Military police commanders as inquiry bodies; search-and-detain groups, ambushes, roadblocks and cordons to find people evading service and soldiers absent without leave; fingerprinting of unidentified detainees; plain clothes allowed. Status: draft, not signed. Our assessment: mainly a response to desertion (see the court series below); the text as reported does not extend searches to civilians.
3. 9–10 Oct — talks. The US–Ukraine–Europe–NATO meeting in Miami ended without a second day (Ukrainska Pravda citing RFE/RL's Alex Raufoglu, 10 Oct); envoy Witkoff called it "constructive". The New York Times (10 Oct): talks sputter after the Trump–Putin fuel deal. Ukrainska Pravda (10 Oct) reports Putin rejected ending the war before "all objectives" are met in his call with Trump; we are looking for a second source. Trilateral technical talks before 31 Oct now look less likely.
4. 8–9 Oct — front (ISW, 8 and 9 Oct, including admissions by Russian milbloggers). Ukrainian advances northeast of Lyman and east of Oleksandrivka; Russia has not taken Kostiantynivka (under 40% of the city), despite Defence Ministry claims. ISW is sympathetic to Ukraine; the milblogger admissions are a separate source. For the index: an offensive without results argues for more manpower need over the medium term.
5. 9 Oct — diesel deal (OFAC General License 135, confirmed by both sides). Money for the budget eases regional bonus payments, an argument against mobilisation; no change to the manpower score yet.
6. Background, unchanged. Ukrainian claims of a "300,000–500,000 mobilisation this autumn" (Kovalenko 18 Jul; Zelensky 27 Jul and 11 Aug; Ukrainian intelligence 27 Aug) have not come true so far. Analysts quoted by The Moscow Times (21 Jul, 21 Sep) judge that recruitment covers losses; lawyer Krivenko notes that the 2022 decree is still in force, so a new wave could come by a closed order.

Signals

• Courts (new series): 189 new art. 337 cases and 16 art. 338 cases received 12 Sep–9 Oct at 15 garrison courts (12.6 per court). Feeds manpower need (desertion is a loss); no baseline yet, so a starting point, not an anomaly.
• Vacancies: 1,691 contract-service vacancies on the official job portal, 48 new in 7 days. Three days of data, no assessment.
• Bonuses: median regional one-time bonus 2.1 million roubles, maximum 4.1 million (St Petersburg), 74 places at 2 million or more; recruiter-maintained table, unverified; consistent with Kluge (1.8 million in August).
• Society: Wikipedia reading on mobilisation topics at 0.56–0.69 of baseline, below normal as on 7 Oct; "Martial law" ×3.37 reflects Ukraine and the Middle East (the same rise in English), not Russian mobilisation. P2P premium 0.41%, normal. Estonia → Russia queues (up to 135 hours) concern entry into Russia and a narrow crossing, not departures.
• Official acts: no new acts on mobilisation or registration on the federal and regional legal portals; no Duma news items on the topic in 7 days.
• What the signals do not show: none points to preparation for calling up reservists. In 2022, public anxiety also stayed low until the last week (see the backtest).

Changes in the legal framework

• Bill No. 8108-9 (women's service and reserve age) introduced; not adopted; from 1 Jan 2027.
• Draft decree on military police statutes (search, inquiry) published; not signed.
• Decree No. 700 of 28 Sep (+15,500 military posts) in force, counted earlier.
• The 2022 mobilisation decree No. 647 is not revoked. No new decrees on mobilisation, reservist training or exit restrictions.

Risks and signs of easing

Would raise the index: summons to reservists "to update records" in several regions at once; exit restrictions for reservists; the women's bill widened beyond medics; the military police decree extended to civilians; collapse of every talks track and a push to regain the initiative; recruitment falling below about 800 a day.
Signs of easing: a revived trilateral track; bonuses and quotas that keep recruitment up; more foreign recruits; diesel money letting regions keep paying.

Checks resolved today

• Mass summons to reservists in several regions by 11 Oct: expectation confirmed, none found (CIT, Meduza, The Moscow Times, Verstka, monitor). Individual "update your records" summons were not found in these days either; that half of our expectation is unresolved for lack of data.

What to check next

• First reading of bill No. 8108-9 and its amendments (by 15 Nov).
• The military police decree: signature and any wording on civilians (by 15 Nov).
• A second source on Putin's words in the 9 Oct call.
• The CIT summary for 4–11 Oct and Kluge's September recruitment data.
• Garrison court desertion series: a first baseline in 2–3 weeks.

Sources and limits

State Duma bill 8108-9 (sozd.duma.gov.ru); regulation.gov.ru project 171657; RIA, Rossiyskaya Gazeta, Interfax, Meduza, The Insider (9 Oct); Vedomosti, RBC, MK (8 Oct); ISW (8 and 9 Oct); Ukrainska Pravda (10 Oct); The New York Times (10 Oct); Al Jazeera (10 Oct); The Moscow Times (21 Jul, 21 Sep); Janis Kluge via The Moscow Times (11 Sep). Signals: Wikimedia pageviews (data of 9 Oct), the official job portal, GoSwift, Bank of Russia and Bybit, garrison court registries (15 of 16), contractarmy.ru (unverified).
Limits: no ticket prices or exit-queue data; the court and vacancy series have no baseline; Putin's words come from one side's account; ISW and Ukrainian sources are partisan, and so are Russian official ones. This is an author's analytical index of pressure and readiness, not a probability and not a forecast of a date.