How to read the Chaos Pulse

The number and its level

The index runs from 0 (low instability) to 100 (extreme instability). Each value falls into one of five named level bandThe named range the score falls into; colours go from green (low) to deep red (extreme). Mores, and the colour on every page follows them. Today's reading is 61, severe crisis.

Low instability	0–19
Elevated tension	20–39
Systemic stress	40–59
Severe crisis ← now	60–79
Extreme instability	80–100

Where the number comes from

The author scores five componentsOne of the five parts of the index, each scored 0–100 against fixed anchors. More from 0 to 100, each against fixed anchor points written before the first report (see the methodology). The index is their weighted sum. Here is the latest reading, recomputed:

Points = weight × score.

So a 10-point rise in military escalation moves the index by 3 points, while the same rise in restraint mechanisms moves it by 1. The weights never change between reports.

The arrow: what changed

The latest reading (5 October 2026) is 61; the previous one (5 October 2026) was 61: unchanged. No component moved: nothing in the new sources changed the state being measured, so the score stayed put.

The rules: small day-to-day moves need new grounds, any change of 5 points or more is explained separately in its report, and a score measures a state, not the amount of news. A terminal that stays offline keeps counting until a source says it is back; a quiet news day is missing data, not calm.

Confidence and uncertainty

ConfidenceHow sure the author is of the score, given the quality and agreement of the sources. More is the author's judgement of the sources behind the score; today it is medium. UncertaintyThe range the index could plausibly be in, given what is unknown; drawn as the outer bracket of the gauge. More: The latest report gives a range of 55–66 around 61. On the gauge it is the outer bracket. That range crosses a level boundary (systemic stress / severe crisis): read the level name as the most likely band, not a certainty.

When data is thin the report widens the range or lowers confidence; it does not quietly assume stability.

Reading a signal card

Signals are what states, armies, markets and people do: shipping through chokepoints, travel advisories, internet outages, procurement news, what people read about war. This is one real card from the latest collection:

1. The pill says how far the latest value is from its own baselineThe usual level of this signal: the median of its own recent history (usually the last 30 days). More: here “1.8× the usual level: more tense than normal, not yet an anomaly.” Each signal is compared only with itself, never with another signal.
2. The number and the sparkline are the latest value and its recent days. A single spike on a flat line is worth less than a slow climb.
3. “Feeds” names the componentOne of the five parts of the index, each scored 0–100 against fixed anchors. More the signal is evidence for. Signals never enter the formula directly: the author reads them, with the news, before scoring.
4. Interpretation & limits (open it) says what the move may mean and what it does not prove. Read the second line first.

No signal is an anomalyA value far outside its own usual range, by a rule fixed in advance. It is a lead to check, not an event. More today, so this example is the one furthest from its usual level.

What it is not

• Not a probability of war, and not a forecast of a date.
• Not proof of any conspiracy: hypotheses are labelled with their authors and tested against evidence.
• Not an official or internationally recognised index: it is one author's structured judgement, with every source dated.
• Not advice. Corrections are shown next to the original, never made silently.

Terms

Baseline

The usual level of this signal: the median of its own recent history (usually the last 30 days).

Anomaly

A value far outside its own usual range, by a rule fixed in advance. It is a lead to check, not an event.

Component

One of the five parts of the index, each scored 0–100 against fixed anchors.

Confidence

How sure the author is of the score, given the quality and agreement of the sources.

Uncertainty

The range the index could plausibly be in, given what is unknown; drawn as the outer bracket of the gauge.

Level band

The named range the score falls into; colours go from green (low) to deep red (extreme).

Norm

A channel group's usual share of posts on a topic: the median of its last 14 days.