Chaos PulseAn index of global systemic crisisTelegram ↗ · By errata ↗

Signals

What states, armies, markets and people do, not what they say: shipping through chokepoints, travel advisories, internet outages, news volume on procurement and emergency powers, and what people read about war. Each signal is compared with its own baseline.

67 hard signals collected on 5 October 2026, each compared with its own baseline. None is anomalous against its own baseline today. Signals are evidence for the components, never a formula of their own.

Procurement 1 signal

Calmfeeds: Military escalation

News share mentioning "body bags" (order OR shortage OR stockpile) (last 3 days vs 4 weeks)

0.001 % of news

23% below usual: calmer than normal.

usual level (baselineThe usual level of this signal: the median of its own recent history (usually the last 30 days). More): 0.0013

Interpretation & limits

May mean: More news about body bag orders or shortages may mean an army expects or suffers heavy losses.

Does not prove: It does not prove casualties: tenders, disasters and rhetoric also use the phrase.

Source: GDELT

Military 2 signals

Normalfeeds: Military escalation

US "Do Not Travel" (Level 4) countries

24 countries

No alarm by its own rule; too little history for a percentage.

Afghanistan, Belarus, Burkina Faso, Burma, Central African Republic, Chad, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Gaza, Haiti, Iran, Iraq, Lebanon …

Interpretation & limits

May mean: A new country on the US Level 4 list means the US government sees a sharp rise in danger there.

Does not prove: It does not prove danger: advisories are political and change slowly.

Source: US State Department

Normalfeeds: Military escalation

Shallow M4.5+ events near nuclear test sites (7 days)

0 events

No alarm by its own rule; too little history for a percentage.

Interpretation & limits

May mean: A shallow quake near a nuclear test site could be a nuclear or large conventional test.

Does not prove: It does not prove a test: natural quakes happen there; only CTBTO or seismologists can tell.

Source: USGS

Energy and supply 15 signals

Calmfeeds: Energy and critical supply

Satellite fire detections near major refineries/oil terminals, European Russia (last 3 days)

2.3 detections/day

48% below usual: calmer than normal.

usual level (baselineThe usual level of this signal: the median of its own recent history (usually the last 30 days). More): 4.4

13 sites, data to 2026-10-04

Interpretation & limits

May mean: More satellite fire detections near big refineries may mean strikes, sabotage or accidents at energy sites.

Does not prove: It does not prove an attack or the site hit: gas flaring, field burning and accidents also show as fires.

Source: NASA FIRMS (VIIRS S-NPP NRT)

Normalfeeds: Energy and critical supply

Bosporus Strait: ships per day (7-day avg, data to 2026-09-27)

49.6 ships/day

11% below usual: within the normal range.

usual level (baselineThe usual level of this signal: the median of its own recent history (usually the last 30 days). More): 56

tankers 11.7/day

Interpretation & limits

May mean: Fewer ships through a chokepoint may mean war risk, attacks, insurance withdrawal or a blockade pushing traffic away.

Does not prove: It does not prove an attack or a closure: weather, seasonality, AIS gaps and the few-day data lag also move it.

Source: IMF PortWatch

Normalfeeds: Energy and critical supply

Bab el-Mandeb Strait: ships per day (7-day avg, data to 2026-09-27)

27.1 ships/day

8% above usual: within the normal range.

usual level (baselineThe usual level of this signal: the median of its own recent history (usually the last 30 days). More): 25

tankers 9.4/day

Interpretation & limits

May mean: Fewer ships through a chokepoint may mean war risk, attacks, insurance withdrawal or a blockade pushing traffic away.

Does not prove: It does not prove an attack or a closure: weather, seasonality, AIS gaps and the few-day data lag also move it.

Source: IMF PortWatch

Normalfeeds: Economic and financial resilience

Brent spot price (2026-09-29)

114 $/bbl

8% above usual: within the normal range.

usual level (baselineThe usual level of this signal: the median of its own recent history (usually the last 30 days). More): 105

baseline = median of the previous 30 trading days

Interpretation & limits

May mean: A Brent price far above its recent level means markets price a supply risk.

Does not prove: It does not prove a physical shortage: speculation, OPEC decisions and the dollar move it too.

Source: US EIA

Normalfeeds: Energy and critical supply

Panama Canal: ships per day (7-day avg, data to 2026-09-27)

27 ships/day

7% below usual: within the normal range.

usual level (baselineThe usual level of this signal: the median of its own recent history (usually the last 30 days). More): 29

tankers 11.7/day

Interpretation & limits

May mean: Fewer ships through a chokepoint may mean war risk, attacks, insurance withdrawal or a blockade pushing traffic away.

Does not prove: It does not prove an attack or a closure: weather, seasonality, AIS gaps and the few-day data lag also move it.

Source: IMF PortWatch

Normalfeeds: Economic and financial resilience

FAO Food Price Index (2026-09)

136 index

6% above usual: within the normal range.

usual level (baselineThe usual level of this signal: the median of its own recent history (usually the last 30 days). More): 129

baseline = same month a year ago

Interpretation & limits

May mean: Higher world food prices raise the risk of unrest in import-dependent poor countries.

Does not prove: It does not prove unrest: prices follow harvests, weather and currencies.

Source: FAO

Normalfeeds: Energy and critical supply

Strait of Hormuz: ships per day (7-day avg, data to 2026-09-27)

3.1 ships/day

3% above usual: within the normal range.

usual level (baselineThe usual level of this signal: the median of its own recent history (usually the last 30 days). More): 3

tankers 1.3/day

Interpretation & limits

May mean: Fewer ships through a chokepoint may mean war risk, attacks, insurance withdrawal or a blockade pushing traffic away.

Does not prove: It does not prove an attack or a closure: weather, seasonality, AIS gaps and the few-day data lag also move it.

Source: IMF PortWatch

Normalfeeds: Energy and critical supply

Malacca Strait: ships per day (7-day avg, data to 2026-09-27)

218 ships/day

3% above usual: within the normal range.

usual level (baselineThe usual level of this signal: the median of its own recent history (usually the last 30 days). More): 212

tankers 70.0/day

Interpretation & limits

May mean: Fewer ships through a chokepoint may mean war risk, attacks, insurance withdrawal or a blockade pushing traffic away.

Does not prove: It does not prove an attack or a closure: weather, seasonality, AIS gaps and the few-day data lag also move it.

Source: IMF PortWatch

Normalfeeds: Energy and critical supply

Suez Canal: ships per day (7-day avg, data to 2026-09-27)

40 ships/day

2% below usual: within the normal range.

usual level (baselineThe usual level of this signal: the median of its own recent history (usually the last 30 days). More): 41

tankers 15.0/day

Interpretation & limits

May mean: Fewer ships through a chokepoint may mean war risk, attacks, insurance withdrawal or a blockade pushing traffic away.

Does not prove: It does not prove an attack or a closure: weather, seasonality, AIS gaps and the few-day data lag also move it.

Source: IMF PortWatch

Normalfeeds: Energy and critical supply

Cape of Good Hope: ships per day (7-day avg, data to 2026-09-27)

88.1 ships/day

2% above usual: within the normal range.

usual level (baselineThe usual level of this signal: the median of its own recent history (usually the last 30 days). More): 86

tankers 19.9/day

Interpretation & limits

May mean: More ships around the Cape usually means traffic rerouted away from the Red Sea and Suez.

Does not prove: It does not prove a new incident: rerouting decisions lag events and also follow freight rates.

Source: IMF PortWatch

Normalfeeds: Energy and critical supply

Satellite fire detections near major refineries/oil terminals, Persian Gulf (last 3 days)

21.3 detections/day

2% below usual: within the normal range.

usual level (baselineThe usual level of this signal: the median of its own recent history (usually the last 30 days). More): 21.7

6 sites, data to 2026-10-04

Interpretation & limits

May mean: More satellite fire detections near big refineries may mean strikes, sabotage or accidents at energy sites.

Does not prove: It does not prove an attack or the site hit: gas flaring, field burning and accidents also show as fires.

Source: NASA FIRMS (VIIRS S-NPP NRT)

Normalfeeds: Energy and critical supply

US distillate (diesel) stocks, week to 2026-09-25

105,180 thousand bbl

2% below usual: within the normal range.

usual level (baselineThe usual level of this signal: the median of its own recent history (usually the last 30 days). More): 107,154

baseline = median of the previous 12 weeks; a fall is the warning

Interpretation & limits

May mean: Falling US crude or diesel stocks mean a tighter buffer against supply shocks.

Does not prove: It does not prove a crisis: stocks move with the season, refinery runs and exports.

Source: US EIA

Normalfeeds: Military escalation

Taiwan Strait: ships per day (7-day avg, data to 2026-09-27)

232 ships/day

1% above usual: within the normal range.

usual level (baselineThe usual level of this signal: the median of its own recent history (usually the last 30 days). More): 230

tankers 46.0/day

Interpretation & limits

May mean: A drop in Taiwan Strait traffic may mean exercises, exclusion zones or ships avoiding a military risk.

Does not prove: It does not prove a blockade: weather, AIS gaps and routing choices move it too.

Source: IMF PortWatch

Normalfeeds: Energy and critical supply

US commercial crude stocks (ex SPR), week to 2026-09-25

427,320 thousand bbl

1% above usual: within the normal range.

usual level (baselineThe usual level of this signal: the median of its own recent history (usually the last 30 days). More): 423,749

baseline = median of the previous 12 weeks; a fall is the warning

Interpretation & limits

May mean: Falling US crude or diesel stocks mean a tighter buffer against supply shocks.

Does not prove: It does not prove a crisis: stocks move with the season, refinery runs and exports.

Source: US EIA

No baseline yetfeeds: Military escalation

Kerch Strait: ships per day (7-day avg, data to 2026-09-27)

0 ships/day

Not enough history yet to say what is usual.

usual level (baselineThe usual level of this signal: the median of its own recent history (usually the last 30 days). More): 0

tankers 0.0/day

Interpretation & limits

May mean: A drop in Kerch Strait traffic may mean strikes, closures or security restrictions in the Black Sea war zone.

Does not prove: It does not prove an attack: closures for weather and AIS switched off by ships also move it.

Source: IMF PortWatch

Control over society 1 signal

No baseline yetfeeds: Domestic and institutional resilience

Countries with significant internet outages (48 h)

20 countries

Not enough history yet to say what is usual.

Benin, Burkina Faso, Burundi, Cape Verde, Central African Republic, China, Congo, Federated States Of Micronesia, Haiti, Iraq, Lesotho, Lithuania, Malta, New Zealand, Northern Mariana Islands

Interpretation & limits

May mean: More countries with large internet outages may mean shutdowns, attacks on networks or grid failures.

Does not prove: It does not tell the cause: cable cuts, power cuts and censorship all look alike here.

Source: IODA (Georgia Tech)

Public anxiety 23 signals

Calmfeeds: Restraint mechanisms

Wikipedia (uk) "Мобілізація": daily readers, last 3 days

13 views/day

45% below usual: calmer than normal.

usual level (baselineThe usual level of this signal: the median of its own recent history (usually the last 30 days). More): 23.5

Interpretation & limits

May mean: A jump in readers of a survival or war article means public anxiety is rising before or after news.

Does not prove: It does not prove any real danger: a film, a meme, school homework or a bot can drive page views.

Source: Wikimedia pageviews

Calmfeeds: Restraint mechanisms

Wikipedia (ru) "Мобилизация": daily readers, last 3 days

117 views/day

33% below usual: calmer than normal.

usual level (baselineThe usual level of this signal: the median of its own recent history (usually the last 30 days). More): 176

Interpretation & limits

May mean: A jump in readers of a survival or war article means public anxiety is rising before or after news.

Does not prove: It does not prove any real danger: a film, a meme, school homework or a bot can drive page views.

Source: Wikimedia pageviews

Above normalfeeds: Restraint mechanisms

Wikipedia (en) "Bug-out bag": daily readers, last 3 days

24 views/day

26% above usual: more tense than normal, not yet an anomaly.

usual level (baselineThe usual level of this signal: the median of its own recent history (usually the last 30 days). More): 19

Interpretation & limits

May mean: A jump in readers of a survival or war article means public anxiety is rising before or after news.

Does not prove: It does not prove any real danger: a film, a meme, school homework or a bot can drive page views.

Source: Wikimedia pageviews

Above normalfeeds: Restraint mechanisms

Wikipedia (de) "Wehrpflicht": daily readers, last 3 days

128 views/day

21% above usual: more tense than normal, not yet an anomaly.

usual level (baselineThe usual level of this signal: the median of its own recent history (usually the last 30 days). More): 106

Interpretation & limits

May mean: A jump in readers of a survival or war article means public anxiety is rising before or after news.

Does not prove: It does not prove any real danger: a film, a meme, school homework or a bot can drive page views.

Source: Wikimedia pageviews

Calmfeeds: Restraint mechanisms

Wikipedia (de) "Kaliumiodid": daily readers, last 3 days

37 views/day

21% below usual: calmer than normal.

usual level (baselineThe usual level of this signal: the median of its own recent history (usually the last 30 days). More): 47

Interpretation & limits

May mean: A jump in readers of a survival or war article means public anxiety is rising before or after news.

Does not prove: It does not prove any real danger: a film, a meme, school homework or a bot can drive page views.

Source: Wikimedia pageviews

Normalfeeds: Restraint mechanisms

Wikipedia (en) "Electromagnetic pulse": daily readers, last 3 days

474 views/day

20% below usual: within the normal range.

usual level (baselineThe usual level of this signal: the median of its own recent history (usually the last 30 days). More): 592

Interpretation & limits

May mean: A jump in readers of a survival or war article means public anxiety is rising before or after news.

Does not prove: It does not prove any real danger: a film, a meme, school homework or a bot can drive page views.

Source: Wikimedia pageviews

Normalfeeds: Restraint mechanisms

Wikipedia (ru) "Бомбоубежище": daily readers, last 3 days

39 views/day

20% below usual: within the normal range.

usual level (baselineThe usual level of this signal: the median of its own recent history (usually the last 30 days). More): 48.5

Interpretation & limits

May mean: A jump in readers of a survival or war article means public anxiety is rising before or after news.

Does not prove: It does not prove any real danger: a film, a meme, school homework or a bot can drive page views.

Source: Wikimedia pageviews

Normalfeeds: Restraint mechanisms

Wikipedia (en) "Air raid shelter": daily readers, last 3 days

75 views/day

18% below usual: within the normal range.

usual level (baselineThe usual level of this signal: the median of its own recent history (usually the last 30 days). More): 91

Interpretation & limits

May mean: A jump in readers of a survival or war article means public anxiety is rising before or after news.

Does not prove: It does not prove any real danger: a film, a meme, school homework or a bot can drive page views.

Source: Wikimedia pageviews

Normalfeeds: Restraint mechanisms

Wikipedia (uk) "Воєнний стан": daily readers, last 3 days

14 views/day

15% below usual: within the normal range.

usual level (baselineThe usual level of this signal: the median of its own recent history (usually the last 30 days). More): 16.5

Interpretation & limits

May mean: A jump in readers of a survival or war article means public anxiety is rising before or after news.

Does not prove: It does not prove any real danger: a film, a meme, school homework or a bot can drive page views.

Source: Wikimedia pageviews

Normalfeeds: Restraint mechanisms

Wikipedia (fa) "جنگ جهانی سوم": daily readers, last 3 days

118 views/day

15% above usual: within the normal range.

usual level (baselineThe usual level of this signal: the median of its own recent history (usually the last 30 days). More): 102

Interpretation & limits

May mean: A jump in readers of a survival or war article means public anxiety is rising before or after news.

Does not prove: It does not prove any real danger: a film, a meme, school homework or a bot can drive page views.

Source: Wikimedia pageviews

Normalfeeds: Restraint mechanisms

Wikipedia (zh) "第三次世界大战": daily readers, last 3 days

8 views/day

14% above usual: within the normal range.

usual level (baselineThe usual level of this signal: the median of its own recent history (usually the last 30 days). More): 7

Interpretation & limits

May mean: A jump in readers of a survival or war article means public anxiety is rising before or after news.

Does not prove: It does not prove any real danger: a film, a meme, school homework or a bot can drive page views.

Source: Wikimedia pageviews

Normalfeeds: Restraint mechanisms

Wikipedia (en) "Potassium iodide": daily readers, last 3 days

280 views/day

13% below usual: within the normal range.

usual level (baselineThe usual level of this signal: the median of its own recent history (usually the last 30 days). More): 322

Interpretation & limits

May mean: A jump in readers of a survival or war article means public anxiety is rising before or after news.

Does not prove: It does not prove any real danger: a film, a meme, school homework or a bot can drive page views.

Source: Wikimedia pageviews

Normalfeeds: Restraint mechanisms

Wikipedia (en) "Martial law": daily readers, last 3 days

691 views/day

13% above usual: within the normal range.

usual level (baselineThe usual level of this signal: the median of its own recent history (usually the last 30 days). More): 610

Interpretation & limits

May mean: A jump in readers of a survival or war article means public anxiety is rising before or after news.

Does not prove: It does not prove any real danger: a film, a meme, school homework or a bot can drive page views.

Source: Wikimedia pageviews

Normalfeeds: Restraint mechanisms

Wikipedia (en) "Fallout shelter": daily readers, last 3 days

135 views/day

12% below usual: within the normal range.

usual level (baselineThe usual level of this signal: the median of its own recent history (usually the last 30 days). More): 154

Interpretation & limits

May mean: A jump in readers of a survival or war article means public anxiety is rising before or after news.

Does not prove: It does not prove any real danger: a film, a meme, school homework or a bot can drive page views.

Source: Wikimedia pageviews

Normalfeeds: Restraint mechanisms

Wikipedia (ru) "Ядерная война": daily readers, last 3 days

130 views/day

9% above usual: within the normal range.

usual level (baselineThe usual level of this signal: the median of its own recent history (usually the last 30 days). More): 119

Interpretation & limits

May mean: A jump in readers of a survival or war article means public anxiety is rising before or after news.

Does not prove: It does not prove any real danger: a film, a meme, school homework or a bot can drive page views.

Source: Wikimedia pageviews

Normalfeeds: Restraint mechanisms

Wikipedia (en) "World War III": daily readers, last 3 days

1,391 views/day

9% below usual: within the normal range.

usual level (baselineThe usual level of this signal: the median of its own recent history (usually the last 30 days). More): 1,524

Interpretation & limits

May mean: A jump in readers of a survival or war article means public anxiety is rising before or after news.

Does not prove: It does not prove any real danger: a film, a meme, school homework or a bot can drive page views.

Source: Wikimedia pageviews

Normalfeeds: Restraint mechanisms

Wikipedia (en) "Gas mask": daily readers, last 3 days

212 views/day

7% below usual: within the normal range.

usual level (baselineThe usual level of this signal: the median of its own recent history (usually the last 30 days). More): 228

Interpretation & limits

May mean: A jump in readers of a survival or war article means public anxiety is rising before or after news.

Does not prove: It does not prove any real danger: a film, a meme, school homework or a bot can drive page views.

Source: Wikimedia pageviews

Normalfeeds: Restraint mechanisms

Wikipedia (ru) "Военное положение": daily readers, last 3 days

38 views/day

4% below usual: within the normal range.

usual level (baselineThe usual level of this signal: the median of its own recent history (usually the last 30 days). More): 39.5

Interpretation & limits

May mean: A jump in readers of a survival or war article means public anxiety is rising before or after news.

Does not prove: It does not prove any real danger: a film, a meme, school homework or a bot can drive page views.

Source: Wikimedia pageviews

Normalfeeds: Restraint mechanisms

Wikipedia (en) "Nuclear warfare": daily readers, last 3 days

469 views/day

1% below usual: within the normal range.

usual level (baselineThe usual level of this signal: the median of its own recent history (usually the last 30 days). More): 476

Interpretation & limits

May mean: A jump in readers of a survival or war article means public anxiety is rising before or after news.

Does not prove: It does not prove any real danger: a film, a meme, school homework or a bot can drive page views.

Source: Wikimedia pageviews

Normalfeeds: Restraint mechanisms

Wikipedia (en) "Conscription": daily readers, last 3 days

904 views/day

1% above usual: within the normal range.

usual level (baselineThe usual level of this signal: the median of its own recent history (usually the last 30 days). More): 899

Interpretation & limits

May mean: A jump in readers of a survival or war article means public anxiety is rising before or after news.

Does not prove: It does not prove any real danger: a film, a meme, school homework or a bot can drive page views.

Source: Wikimedia pageviews

Normalfeeds: Restraint mechanisms

Wikipedia (ru) "Третья мировая война": daily readers, last 3 days

319 views/day

1% below usual: within the normal range.

usual level (baselineThe usual level of this signal: the median of its own recent history (usually the last 30 days). More): 323

Interpretation & limits

May mean: A jump in readers of a survival or war article means public anxiety is rising before or after news.

Does not prove: It does not prove any real danger: a film, a meme, school homework or a bot can drive page views.

Source: Wikimedia pageviews

Normalfeeds: Restraint mechanisms

Wikipedia (ru) "Йодид калия": daily readers, last 3 days

1 views/day

The same as usual: within the normal range.

usual level (baselineThe usual level of this signal: the median of its own recent history (usually the last 30 days). More): 1

Interpretation & limits

May mean: A jump in readers of a survival or war article means public anxiety is rising before or after news.

Does not prove: It does not prove any real danger: a film, a meme, school homework or a bot can drive page views.

Source: Wikimedia pageviews

Normalfeeds: Restraint mechanisms

Wikipedia (he) "מרחב מוגן דירתי": daily readers, last 3 days

0 views/day

No alarm by its own rule; too little history for a percentage.

usual level (baselineThe usual level of this signal: the median of its own recent history (usually the last 30 days). More): 1

Interpretation & limits

May mean: A jump in readers of a survival or war article means public anxiety is rising before or after news.

Does not prove: It does not prove any real danger: a film, a meme, school homework or a bot can drive page views.

Source: Wikimedia pageviews

Mobilisation early warning 25 signals

Above normalfeeds: Domestic and institutional resilience

Wikipedia (en) "Conscription in Ukraine": daily readers, last 3 days

229 views/day

1.8× the usual level: more tense than normal, not yet an anomaly.

usual level (baselineThe usual level of this signal: the median of its own recent history (usually the last 30 days). More): 129

Interpretation & limits

May mean: More readers of articles on emigration, border crossings, deferment, draft papers or alternative service means people are quietly weighing how to avoid a call-up or leave.

Does not prove: It does not prove a mobilisation is coming: a new law, a rumour, a viral post, school terms or the routine spring and autumn call-ups also drive readers.

Source: Wikimedia pageviews

Above normalfeeds: Domestic and institutional resilience

Wikipedia (fa) "خدمت نظامی": daily readers, last 3 days

83 views/day

1.7× the usual level: more tense than normal, not yet an anomaly.

usual level (baselineThe usual level of this signal: the median of its own recent history (usually the last 30 days). More): 48

Interpretation & limits

May mean: More readers of articles on emigration, border crossings, deferment, draft papers or alternative service means people are quietly weighing how to avoid a call-up or leave.

Does not prove: It does not prove a mobilisation is coming: a new law, a rumour, a viral post, school terms or the routine spring and autumn call-ups also drive readers.

Source: Wikimedia pageviews

Calmfeeds: Domestic and institutional resilience

Wikipedia (uk) "Мобілізація в Україні": daily readers, last 3 days

7 views/day

58% below usual: calmer than normal.

usual level (baselineThe usual level of this signal: the median of its own recent history (usually the last 30 days). More): 16.5

Interpretation & limits

May mean: More readers of articles on emigration, border crossings, deferment, draft papers or alternative service means people are quietly weighing how to avoid a call-up or leave.

Does not prove: It does not prove a mobilisation is coming: a new law, a rumour, a viral post, school terms or the routine spring and autumn call-ups also drive readers.

Source: Wikimedia pageviews

Calmfeeds: Domestic and institutional resilience

Wikipedia (ru) "Мобилизация в России (с 2022)": daily readers, last 3 days

250 views/day

45% below usual: calmer than normal.

usual level (baselineThe usual level of this signal: the median of its own recent history (usually the last 30 days). More): 452

Interpretation & limits

May mean: More readers of articles on emigration, border crossings, deferment, draft papers or alternative service means people are quietly weighing how to avoid a call-up or leave.

Does not prove: It does not prove a mobilisation is coming: a new law, a rumour, a viral post, school terms or the routine spring and autumn call-ups also drive readers.

Source: Wikimedia pageviews

Calmfeeds: Domestic and institutional resilience

Wikipedia (de) "Musterung": daily readers, last 3 days

21 views/day

41% below usual: calmer than normal.

usual level (baselineThe usual level of this signal: the median of its own recent history (usually the last 30 days). More): 35.5

Interpretation & limits

May mean: More readers of articles on emigration, border crossings, deferment, draft papers or alternative service means people are quietly weighing how to avoid a call-up or leave.

Does not prove: It does not prove a mobilisation is coming: a new law, a rumour, a viral post, school terms or the routine spring and autumn call-ups also drive readers.

Source: Wikimedia pageviews

Calmfeeds: Domestic and institutional resilience

Wikipedia (ru) "Повестка": daily readers, last 3 days

19 views/day

40% below usual: calmer than normal.

usual level (baselineThe usual level of this signal: the median of its own recent history (usually the last 30 days). More): 31.5

Interpretation & limits

May mean: More readers of articles on emigration, border crossings, deferment, draft papers or alternative service means people are quietly weighing how to avoid a call-up or leave.

Does not prove: It does not prove a mobilisation is coming: a new law, a rumour, a viral post, school terms or the routine spring and autumn call-ups also drive readers.

Source: Wikimedia pageviews

Above normalfeeds: Domestic and institutional resilience

Wikipedia (he) "צו 8": daily readers, last 3 days

7 views/day

40% above usual: more tense than normal, not yet an anomaly.

usual level (baselineThe usual level of this signal: the median of its own recent history (usually the last 30 days). More): 5

Interpretation & limits

May mean: More readers of articles on emigration, border crossings, deferment, draft papers or alternative service means people are quietly weighing how to avoid a call-up or leave.

Does not prove: It does not prove a mobilisation is coming: a new law, a rumour, a viral post, school terms or the routine spring and autumn call-ups also drive readers.

Source: Wikimedia pageviews

Calmfeeds: Domestic and institutional resilience

Wikipedia (ru) "Реестр повесток": daily readers, last 3 days

129 views/day

39% below usual: calmer than normal.

usual level (baselineThe usual level of this signal: the median of its own recent history (usually the last 30 days). More): 212

Interpretation & limits

May mean: More readers of articles on emigration, border crossings, deferment, draft papers or alternative service means people are quietly weighing how to avoid a call-up or leave.

Does not prove: It does not prove a mobilisation is coming: a new law, a rumour, a viral post, school terms or the routine spring and autumn call-ups also drive readers.

Source: Wikimedia pageviews

Calmfeeds: Domestic and institutional resilience

Wikipedia (ru) "Верхний Ларс": daily readers, last 3 days

84 views/day

29% below usual: calmer than normal.

usual level (baselineThe usual level of this signal: the median of its own recent history (usually the last 30 days). More): 118

Interpretation & limits

May mean: More readers of articles on emigration, border crossings, deferment, draft papers or alternative service means people are quietly weighing how to avoid a call-up or leave.

Does not prove: It does not prove a mobilisation is coming: a new law, a rumour, a viral post, school terms or the routine spring and autumn call-ups also drive readers.

Source: Wikimedia pageviews

Above normalfeeds: Domestic and institutional resilience

Wikipedia (zh) "後備軍事動員": daily readers, last 3 days

10 views/day

25% above usual: more tense than normal, not yet an anomaly.

usual level (baselineThe usual level of this signal: the median of its own recent history (usually the last 30 days). More): 8

Interpretation & limits

May mean: More readers of articles on emigration, border crossings, deferment, draft papers or alternative service means people are quietly weighing how to avoid a call-up or leave.

Does not prove: It does not prove a mobilisation is coming: a new law, a rumour, a viral post, school terms or the routine spring and autumn call-ups also drive readers.

Source: Wikimedia pageviews

Calmfeeds: Domestic and institutional resilience

Wikipedia (zh) "民役": daily readers, last 3 days

3 views/day

25% below usual: calmer than normal.

usual level (baselineThe usual level of this signal: the median of its own recent history (usually the last 30 days). More): 4

Interpretation & limits

May mean: More readers of articles on emigration, border crossings, deferment, draft papers or alternative service means people are quietly weighing how to avoid a call-up or leave.

Does not prove: It does not prove a mobilisation is coming: a new law, a rumour, a viral post, school terms or the routine spring and autumn call-ups also drive readers.

Source: Wikimedia pageviews

Calmfeeds: Domestic and institutional resilience

Wikipedia (ru) "Эмиграция из России": daily readers, last 3 days

52 views/day

24% below usual: calmer than normal.

usual level (baselineThe usual level of this signal: the median of its own recent history (usually the last 30 days). More): 68.5

Interpretation & limits

May mean: More readers of articles on emigration, border crossings, deferment, draft papers or alternative service means people are quietly weighing how to avoid a call-up or leave.

Does not prove: It does not prove a mobilisation is coming: a new law, a rumour, a viral post, school terms or the routine spring and autumn call-ups also drive readers.

Source: Wikimedia pageviews

Calmfeeds: Domestic and institutional resilience

Wikipedia (ru) "Альтернативная гражданская служба": daily readers, last 3 days

18 views/day

23% below usual: calmer than normal.

usual level (baselineThe usual level of this signal: the median of its own recent history (usually the last 30 days). More): 23.5

Interpretation & limits

May mean: More readers of articles on emigration, border crossings, deferment, draft papers or alternative service means people are quietly weighing how to avoid a call-up or leave.

Does not prove: It does not prove a mobilisation is coming: a new law, a rumour, a viral post, school terms or the routine spring and autumn call-ups also drive readers.

Source: Wikimedia pageviews

Calmfeeds: Domestic and institutional resilience

Wikipedia (he) "שירות המילואים בישראל": daily readers, last 3 days

23 views/day

21% below usual: calmer than normal.

usual level (baselineThe usual level of this signal: the median of its own recent history (usually the last 30 days). More): 29

Interpretation & limits

May mean: More readers of articles on emigration, border crossings, deferment, draft papers or alternative service means people are quietly weighing how to avoid a call-up or leave.

Does not prove: It does not prove a mobilisation is coming: a new law, a rumour, a viral post, school terms or the routine spring and autumn call-ups also drive readers.

Source: Wikimedia pageviews

Normalfeeds: Domestic and institutional resilience

Wikipedia (en) "Conscription in Israel": daily readers, last 3 days

281 views/day

18% above usual: within the normal range.

usual level (baselineThe usual level of this signal: the median of its own recent history (usually the last 30 days). More): 238

Interpretation & limits

May mean: More readers of articles on emigration, border crossings, deferment, draft papers or alternative service means people are quietly weighing how to avoid a call-up or leave.

Does not prove: It does not prove a mobilisation is coming: a new law, a rumour, a viral post, school terms or the routine spring and autumn call-ups also drive readers.

Source: Wikimedia pageviews

Normalfeeds: Domestic and institutional resilience

Wikipedia (de) "Kriegsdienstverweigerung": daily readers, last 3 days

34 views/day

11% above usual: within the normal range.

usual level (baselineThe usual level of this signal: the median of its own recent history (usually the last 30 days). More): 30.5

Interpretation & limits

May mean: More readers of articles on emigration, border crossings, deferment, draft papers or alternative service means people are quietly weighing how to avoid a call-up or leave.

Does not prove: It does not prove a mobilisation is coming: a new law, a rumour, a viral post, school terms or the routine spring and autumn call-ups also drive readers.

Source: Wikimedia pageviews

Normalfeeds: Domestic and institutional resilience

Wikipedia (de) "Wehrdienst": daily readers, last 3 days

52 views/day

9% below usual: within the normal range.

usual level (baselineThe usual level of this signal: the median of its own recent history (usually the last 30 days). More): 57

Interpretation & limits

May mean: More readers of articles on emigration, border crossings, deferment, draft papers or alternative service means people are quietly weighing how to avoid a call-up or leave.

Does not prove: It does not prove a mobilisation is coming: a new law, a rumour, a viral post, school terms or the routine spring and autumn call-ups also drive readers.

Source: Wikimedia pageviews

Normalfeeds: Domestic and institutional resilience

Wikipedia (en) "Conscription in Germany": daily readers, last 3 days

94 views/day

7% above usual: within the normal range.

usual level (baselineThe usual level of this signal: the median of its own recent history (usually the last 30 days). More): 87.5

Interpretation & limits

May mean: More readers of articles on emigration, border crossings, deferment, draft papers or alternative service means people are quietly weighing how to avoid a call-up or leave.

Does not prove: It does not prove a mobilisation is coming: a new law, a rumour, a viral post, school terms or the routine spring and autumn call-ups also drive readers.

Source: Wikimedia pageviews

Normalfeeds: Domestic and institutional resilience

Wikipedia (ru) "Военный комиссариат": daily readers, last 3 days

59 views/day

6% below usual: within the normal range.

usual level (baselineThe usual level of this signal: the median of its own recent history (usually the last 30 days). More): 62.5

Interpretation & limits

May mean: More readers of articles on emigration, border crossings, deferment, draft papers or alternative service means people are quietly weighing how to avoid a call-up or leave.

Does not prove: It does not prove a mobilisation is coming: a new law, a rumour, a viral post, school terms or the routine spring and autumn call-ups also drive readers.

Source: Wikimedia pageviews

Normalfeeds: Domestic and institutional resilience

Wikipedia (en) "Conscientious objector": daily readers, last 3 days

532 views/day

6% below usual: within the normal range.

usual level (baselineThe usual level of this signal: the median of its own recent history (usually the last 30 days). More): 563

Interpretation & limits

May mean: More readers of articles on emigration, border crossings, deferment, draft papers or alternative service means people are quietly weighing how to avoid a call-up or leave.

Does not prove: It does not prove a mobilisation is coming: a new law, a rumour, a viral post, school terms or the routine spring and autumn call-ups also drive readers.

Source: Wikimedia pageviews

Normalfeeds: Domestic and institutional resilience

Wikipedia (en) "Conscription in Russia": daily readers, last 3 days

158 views/day

3% above usual: within the normal range.

usual level (baselineThe usual level of this signal: the median of its own recent history (usually the last 30 days). More): 154

Interpretation & limits

May mean: More readers of articles on emigration, border crossings, deferment, draft papers or alternative service means people are quietly weighing how to avoid a call-up or leave.

Does not prove: It does not prove a mobilisation is coming: a new law, a rumour, a viral post, school terms or the routine spring and autumn call-ups also drive readers.

Source: Wikimedia pageviews

Normalfeeds: Domestic and institutional resilience

Wikipedia (en) "Conscription in Taiwan": daily readers, last 3 days

51 views/day

3% below usual: within the normal range.

usual level (baselineThe usual level of this signal: the median of its own recent history (usually the last 30 days). More): 52.5

Interpretation & limits

May mean: More readers of articles on emigration, border crossings, deferment, draft papers or alternative service means people are quietly weighing how to avoid a call-up or leave.

Does not prove: It does not prove a mobilisation is coming: a new law, a rumour, a viral post, school terms or the routine spring and autumn call-ups also drive readers.

Source: Wikimedia pageviews

Normalfeeds: Domestic and institutional resilience

Wikipedia (ru) "Военный билет": daily readers, last 3 days

3 views/day

The same as usual: within the normal range.

usual level (baselineThe usual level of this signal: the median of its own recent history (usually the last 30 days). More): 3

Interpretation & limits

May mean: More readers of articles on emigration, border crossings, deferment, draft papers or alternative service means people are quietly weighing how to avoid a call-up or leave.

Does not prove: It does not prove a mobilisation is coming: a new law, a rumour, a viral post, school terms or the routine spring and autumn call-ups also drive readers.

Source: Wikimedia pageviews

Normalfeeds: Domestic and institutional resilience

Wikipedia (uk) "ТЦК": daily readers, last 3 days

1 views/day

The same as usual: within the normal range.

usual level (baselineThe usual level of this signal: the median of its own recent history (usually the last 30 days). More): 1

Interpretation & limits

May mean: More readers of articles on emigration, border crossings, deferment, draft papers or alternative service means people are quietly weighing how to avoid a call-up or leave.

Does not prove: It does not prove a mobilisation is coming: a new law, a rumour, a viral post, school terms or the routine spring and autumn call-ups also drive readers.

Source: Wikimedia pageviews

Normalfeeds: Military escalation

Russia: presidential acts on call-up, mobilisation, reserves, military registration or exit (last 30 days)

0 acts/30 days

No alarm by its own rule; too little history for a percentage.

usual level (baselineThe usual level of this signal: the median of its own recent history (usually the last 30 days). More): 2.5

Interpretation & limits

May mean: More official acts on call-up, reserves, military registration or exit rules means the state is changing how it raises soldiers.

Does not prove: It does not prove mobilisation: the routine call-up decrees come every spring (late March) and autumn (late September), and many acts are technical.

Source: publication.pravo.gov.ru

Data of 2026-10-05: signals.json. A badge "within baseline" means the latest value is inside its normal range; "no baseline" means there is not enough history yet.