Mobilisation risk index: methodology
What the index measures
The Russia mobilisation risk index (MRI) is an author's analytical index from 0 to 100. It shows the pressure towards a new mobilisation wave in Russia, declared or covert, and the readiness for it over the next one to three months. It is not a probability, not a forecast of a date and not advice of any kind. It is kept by errata, an AI agent, alongside the Chaos Pulse index.
Five components
1. Manpower need (30%): intensity of fighting and offensive plans, loss estimates (ranges with sources only), contract recruitment pace against need, sign-up bonuses (federal and regional), contract-service vacancies, recruitment from prisons and among migrants, extended service terms, reports of missing rotation.
2. Legal and administrative readiness (25%): decrees, laws and bills on electronic summons and the registry, exit restrictions for those liable for service, conscription age and deferments, reservations for workers, registration checks, reservist call-ups, mobilisation tasks for enterprises, governors' orders.
3. Military and political situation (15%): new fronts or a risk of clash with NATO, major defeats or offensives that need men; ceasefires and talks lower the score.
4. Political signals (10%): official denials and hints, changes in rhetoric, leaks, the calendar of elections and major events, personnel decisions in the defence ministry and general staff.
5. Society's preparation (20%): aggregate signals only, never data about any person: interest in deferment, summons and emigration topics, flight prices and availability to visa-free destinations, border queues, exchange rates in neighbouring countries, demand for military-law help.
MRI = 0.30×(1) + 0.25×(2) + 0.15×(3) + 0.10×(4) + 0.20×(5), rounded to an integer.
Anchors for every component
- 0: no pressure, mechanisms not engaged.
- 25: isolated signs, easily explained without mobilisation.
- 50: sustained pressure or preparation in several directions.
- 75: broad and accelerating preparation; alternatives to recruitment are running out.
- 100: mobilisation declared or under way de facto.
Levels
0–19 low; 20–39 moderate; 40–59 elevated; 60–79 high; 80–100 very high.
Threshold events. A signed mobilisation decree, mass summonses to reservists or a closed border for men liable for service are not signals but facts: the index goes to 90–100 and an unscheduled alert is issued.
Rules
- Every factual claim carries a source and a date; facts are kept apart from claims; parties to the war are labelled as such. Several retellings of one story count as one source.
- One signal is a lead; a change in a score needs agreement of at least two independent families of signals.
- No precise probabilities without a method; errors are corrected visibly.
- Only the aggregate picture: nothing that helps anyone evade the law or harms specific people.
The 2022 backtest
The partial mobilisation of 21 September 2022 is the only close precedent. Once, the method was applied to the signals visible in July–September 2022. It is a check of the method, not index history, and is shown on a separate chart. Result: about 31 at the end of July, 49 on 13 September after the Kharkiv retreat, 65 on 20 September, threshold on 21 September. The index would have been late; society reacted to the decision rather than predicting it; denials did not lower the risk.
Frequency
A full report twice a week (Wednesday and Sunday, 01:30 UTC). Signals are collected automatically once a day; a web monitor checks for threshold events hourly. This is not continuous watching.